In each of these exercises I will be using the council election vote from 2016, now folks do like to say people vote on local matters etcetera but to me they are a better indication than opinion polls, because in my opinion if you are a voter of a particular party then that will be the same mindset more or less for major elections and as always I prefer votes cast rather than opinions sort. These folks have had to get off their backsides and vote.
Click the constituency name for the constituency you are interested in. Information and breakdown on each page.
Basildon & Billericay CON HOLD but 6.5% swing CON to LAB
Birmingham Edgbaston LAB HOLD but lead of CON goes from 6.5% to 0.7%
Birmingham Erdington LAB HOLD but 6% swing UKIP to CONSERVATIVES
Birmingham Yardley LIB DEM GAIN
Bolton North East LAB HOLD Nominal change
Bolton West LAB GAIN
Bradford East LAB HOLD But 8% swing Labour to Lib Dems
Bristol East LAB HOLD 4% SWING CON TO LAB
Bristol North West CON HOLD But both CON & LAB vote share down
Bristol South LAB HOLD But GREENS 2nd CONS drop 2nd to 4th
Bristol West GREEN GAIN
Broxbourne Comfortable CON HOLD but shows 5% swing UKIP > Labour
Bury North LAB GAIN But a very nominal gain
Cambridge LAB HOLD approx 10% swing LD to LAB
Calder Valley TIE From Conservative by 8.2% to both having same amount of votes.
Cheadle LIB DEM GAIN
Cheltenham LIB DEM GAIN
Colne Valley LAB GAIN
Crawley LABOUR GAIN
Dewsbury Slightly stronger HOLD for LAB & GREENS into 3rd place
Dudley South LAB GAIN
Eastleigh LIB DEM GAIN
Elmet & Rothwell LAB GAIN 8.25% swing CON to LAB
Halifax LAB HOLD increased MAJ from 1% to 17.6%
Hastings & Rye LAB GAIN
Hazel Grove LIB DEM GAIN
Ipswich LAB GAIN
Leeds North West LIB DEM HOLD but CON up by 5% LD & LAB share down slightly.
Leeds West LAB HOLD but CON drop down to 4th Behind Greens & UKIP
Meriden CON HOLD, GREENS BECOME CHALLENGERS
Newcastle Upon Tyne North LAB HOLD but interesting for the big swing CON to LD
Oldham East & Saddleworth LAB HOLD but drop in share also big swing CON to LD
Portsmouth South LIB DEM GAIN Current incumbents CON down to 3rd
Solihull CON HOLD But GREENS go from 5th to 2nd
Southport LIB DEM HOLD 11.25% swing CON to LD as LD win every ward.
Watford LIB DEM GAIN
Wirral South LAB HOLD But 3.5% swing LAB to CON due to LD Surge to 18%
Wirral West CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Wolverhampton South LAB HOLD and extend lead over the Conservatives
Also
May 5th votes converted into a eu referendum forecast
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Resource tool used.
@AndyJSajs Is a great account to follow I am surprised he has less than a 1,000 followers. Andy has been busy again with another google doc.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13C07pTr6ccd62S2dkElV5DzC6uN5YKbF-z2ux4CA6vY/edit#gid=0
