Latest UK General Election Forecast by Electoral Calculus

Link to >>> Forecasts, predictions & projections For Scottish & Welsh elections as well as the EU Referendum.

Link to >>> Map of what the new UK Parliamentary constituencies could look like & possible outcome

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 8

Party	2015 Votes	2015 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.8%	331	36.5%	329
LAB	31.2%	232	30.3%	234
LIB	8.1%	8	6.5%	6
UKIP	12.9%	1	15.9%	2
Green	3.8%	1	4.1%	1
SNP	4.9%	56	4.9%	56
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	4
Minor	0.8%	0	1.2%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Mar 2016 to 29 Apr 2016, sampling 10,023 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	53%
Con/Nat coalition	25%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	7%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	7%
Lab/Nat coalition	5%
Labour majority	2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2015
Carshalton and Wallington	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	: Tom Brake
Croydon Central	Croydon	LAB	gain from	CON	: Gavin Barwell
Derby North	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	: Amanda Solloway
Gower	West Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	CON	: Byron Davies
Southport	Merseyside	CON	gain from	LIB	: John Pugh
Thurrock	Essex	UKIP	gain from	CON	: Jackie Doyle-Price
Ynys Mon	Gwynedd	NAT	gain from	LAB	: Albert Owen

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 1 May 2016 at

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 

Labour have lost noticeable support during April, reversing their gains from March, according to the pollsters. But the beneficiary has been UKIP rather than the Conservatives, who are now up 4pc to 16pc support. This is the best polling for UKIP for over a year and better than their general election result. However, in terms of seats, this benefits the Conservatives (+13 seats) more than UKIP (+1 seat). 

The most recent polls from the six pollsters who published polls in April are: 

BMG Research has Con 36, Lab 31, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 5 ComRes (IoS, SMirror) has Con 35, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 16, Green 4 ICM (The Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 31, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 38, Lab 35, Lib 6, UKIP 11, Green 3 YouGov (Times) has Con 30, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 20, Green 3 Opinium has Con 38, Lab 30, Lib 5, UKIP 15, Green 5 

The averages: Con 36 (nc), Lab 30 (-4), Lib 6 (-2), UKIP 16 (+4), Grn 4 (+1). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 8 seats, winning 329 seats (+13 seats since 3 April). 

Electoral Calculus