Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 2
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 London Assembly Election. It predicts that Labour will again fall two seats short of a majority.
This forecast was created on April 2nd 2016. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (March 2016) and the Welsh Assembly Forecast (March 2016).
Forecast percentages were based primarily on opinion poll percentages. The overall vote percentages used (again) were: Constituency Vote: Lab 42%, Con 35%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6%. AMS (Add-on Seats) Vote: Lab 40%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 6%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
Note that these figures are unchanged from the previous forecast as there have been few recent opinion polls for the London Assembly. If a new London Assembly opinion poll is published before the election then a new UK-Elect forecast may be created.
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Notes: The forecast base was the 2012 London Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the London Assembly elections.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election.
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