Latest General Election prediction by Electoral Calculus
The Conservatives lost a significant amount of ground to Labour during March,
according to the pollsters, as the Conservative lead has been cut from 9pc to
just 3pc. The cause of the decline is not clear. ICM dates it to before the
budget, which would suggest the Euro Referendum as the cause. But ComRes dates
it to around the time of the budget and the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith.
YouGov and Ipsos-MORI are ambiguous.
But all four pollsters agree that the Conservative lead has diminished.
Translating this into a projected general election and ignoring future boundary
changes, the Conservatives would just lose their overall parliamentary majority .
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in March
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 36, Lib 8, UKIP 11, Green 3
YouGov (Times) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 6, UKIP 16, Green 3
ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 37, Lab 35, Lib 7, UKIP 9, Green 4
Ipsos-MORI has Con 36, Lab 34, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 3
The averages: Con 36 (-3), Lab 34 (+4), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (-2), Grn 3 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 10 seats short of
a majority, winning 316 seats (-29 seats since 28 February).