Current Prediction: Conservative short 10 of majority
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 36.2% | 316 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 33.6% | 248 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 7.5% | 7 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 12.4% | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 3.2% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 3 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 1.7% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Mar 2016 to 22 Mar 2016, sampling 4,717 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Labour majority |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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The Conservatives lost a significant amount of ground to Labour during March,
according to the pollsters, as the Conservative lead has been cut from 9pc to
just 3pc. The cause of the decline is not clear. ICM dates it to before the
budget, which would suggest the Euro Referendum as the cause. But ComRes dates
it to around the time of the budget and the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith.
YouGov and Ipsos-MORI are ambiguous.
But all four pollsters agree that the Conservative lead has diminished.
Translating this into a projected general election and ignoring future boundary
changes, the Conservatives would just lose their overall parliamentary majority .
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in March
are:
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 36, Lib 8, UKIP 11, Green 3
YouGov (Times) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 6, UKIP 16, Green 3
ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 37, Lab 35, Lib 7, UKIP 9, Green 4
Ipsos-MORI has Con 36, Lab 34, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 3
The averages: Con 36 (-3), Lab 34 (+4), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (-2), Grn 3 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 10 seats short of
a majority, winning 316 seats (-29 seats since 28 February).
Electoral Calculus
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
