Derby, Allestree council by election 29th September

Derby, Allestree - Conservative hold

Party	2016 B votes	2016 B share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Conservative	2,006	54.6%	-6.1%	-2.1%	+0.4%	+7.5%
Liberal Democrat	1,053	28.7%	+17.2%	+18.4%	+22.7%	+24.5%
Labour	409	11.1%	-5.8%	-10.2%	-9.5%	-18.7%
Green	115	3.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	-0.8%
UKIP	91	2.5%	-8.5%	-9.2%	-16.7%	-12.5%
Total votes	3,674		79%	43%	76%	85%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~11% since 2016, 2015 and 2014 whilst 8½% since 2012
            whilst as meaningful Labour to Conservative little change since 2016, ~4% since 2015, ~5 % since 2014 and ~13% since 2012
Council now 26 Labour, 17 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 3 UKIP

review first published here > election-data.co.uk written by @andrewteale 

ALLESTREE

Derby council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Richard Smalley.

For our first, and definitely most controversial, poll of the week we are in the city of Derby.  Allestree is a northern suburb of Derby, lying on the edge of the city on the far side of the A38 bypass and nearly all developed since the Second World War (mostly in the late 1950s and early 1960s).  This is a solidly middle-class ward with very high rates of owner-occupation and – despite the presence within the ward of the main campus of the University of Derby – a relatively old age profile.  Famous people associated with the ward include the actor Sir Alan Bates and the football managers Brian and Nigel Clough, while for Derby residents Allestree is probably best known for the Markeaton and Allestree parks and the large Park Farm shopping centre.

This by-election is controversial because of the reason it came about.  Richard Smalley, who for many years has been director of a scrap metal company, was elected to Derby city council in 2002 representing Oakwood ward, and stood down from the council in 2008.  He returned to Derby city council for Allestree ward only in May, and was quickly elected as deputy leader of the Conservative group, but resigned just ten days after his election.  It soon became clear that Smalley had provided a false home address on his nomination papers for the election, and he is now serving a two-month prison sentence after pleading guilty to electoral fraud.

Bad news for the Derby Conservatives, who must now be looking at their large majority in this safe ward – Smalley beat Labour 59-16 in May – with rather more concern than usual.  Their candidate is Ged Potter.  Labour have reselected their candidate from May, Oleg Sotnicenko, and the ballot paper is completed by Deena Smith for the Lib Dems, Gaurav Pandey for UKIP and Marten Kats for the Green Party, whose ballot paper description “The Green Party – Say No To Racism” has been accepted despite going over the six-word limit.

Parliamentary constituency: Mid Derbyshire
Proposed parliamentary constituency from 2020: Amber Valley

May 2016 result C 2820 Lab 785 LD 645 UKIP 508
May 2015 result C 4867 Lab 1835 UKIP 1005 LD 883
May 2014 result C 2621 Lab 998 UKIP 925 LD 289
May 2012 result C 2040 Lab 1289 UKIP 647 LD 179 Grn 172
May 2011 result C 3486 Lab 1756 LD 579
May 2010 result C 4908 LD 1841 Lab 1608
Oct 2009 by-election C 1988 LD 1037 Lab 532 BNP 242
May 2008 result C 3234 Lab 739 LD 633 BNP 563
May 2007 result C 3172 Lab 940 LD 801
May 2006 result C 3228 Lab 962 LD 763
June 2004 result C 2879 Lab 1246 UKIP 1174 LD 1038
May 2003 result C 2132 LD 1053 Lab 1021
May 2002 result C 2726/2621/2529 Lab 1274/1159/920 LD 721/559/488