--------------
Top 24 Liberal Democrat targets
Number
|
Name of constituency
|
Lib Dem swing
|
1
|
Cambridge
|
0.58%
|
2
|
Eastbourne
|
0.69%
|
3
|
Lewes
|
1.07%
|
4
|
Thornbury and Yate
|
1.54%
|
5
|
Twickenham
|
1.63%
|
6
|
Dunbartonshire East
|
1.97%
|
7
|
Kingston and Surbiton
|
2.39%
|
8
|
St Ives
|
2.56%
|
9
|
Edinburgh West
|
2.93%
|
10
|
Torbay
|
3.42%
|
11
|
Sutton and Cheam
|
3.93%
|
12
|
Bath
|
4.06%
|
13
|
Burnley
|
4.08%
|
14
|
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
|
4.36%
|
15
|
Yeovil
|
4.67%
|
16
|
Fife North East
|
4.80%
|
17
|
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
|
5.62%
|
18
|
Colchester
|
5.74%
|
19
|
Cheltenham
|
6.06%
|
20
|
Cheadle
|
6.08%
|
21
|
Berwick-Upon-Tweed
|
6.08%
|
22
|
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
|
6.13%
|
23
|
Portsmouth South
|
6.25%
|
24
|
Brecon and Radnorshire
|
6.37%
|
Top 50 Conservative targets (Seats that never voted Con since 1983 in italics)
Number
|
Name of constituency
|
Con swing
|
1
|
Chester, City Of
|
0.09%
|
2
|
Ealing Central and Acton
|
0.27%
|
3
|
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
|
0.30%
|
4
|
Brentford and Isleworth
|
0.41%
|
5
|
Halifax
|
0.49%
|
6
|
Wirral West
|
0.50%
|
7
|
Ilford North
|
0.60%
|
8
|
Newcastle-Under-Lyme
|
0.76%
|
9
|
Barrow and Furness
|
0.92%
|
10
|
Wolverhampton South West
|
1.00%
|
11
|
Hampstead and Kilburn
|
1.05%
|
12
|
Enfield North
|
1.18%
|
13
|
Hove
|
1.18%
|
14
|
Dewsbury
|
1.35%
|
15
|
Southport
|
1.50%
|
16
|
Lancaster and Fleetwood
|
1.52%
|
17
|
Carshalton and Wallington
|
1.59%
|
18
|
Derbyshire North East
|
1.96%
|
19
|
Harrow West
|
2.37%
|
20
|
Bridgend
|
2.44%
|
21
|
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
|
2.48%
|
22
|
Westminster North
|
2.50%
|
23
|
Walsall North
|
2.63%
|
24
|
Tooting
|
2.65%
|
25
|
Wrexham
|
2.80%
|
26
|
Birmingham Northfield
|
2.95%
|
27
|
Wakefield
|
3.04%
|
28
|
Gedling
|
3.11%
|
29
|
Eltham
|
3.12%
|
30
|
Copeland
|
3.23%
|
31
|
Stoke-On-Trent South
|
3.25%
|
32
|
Birmingham Edgbaston
|
3.28%
|
33
|
Clwyd South
|
3.43%
|
34
|
Coventry South
|
3.65%
|
35
|
Darlington
|
3.84%
|
36
|
Clacton
|
3.89%
|
37
|
Delyn
|
3.91%
|
38
|
Blackpool South
|
3.98%
|
39
|
Alyn and Deeside
|
4.05%
|
40
|
Norfolk North
|
4.09%
|
41
|
Scunthorpe
|
4.24%
|
42
|
Bristol East
|
4.31%
|
43
|
Newport West
|
4.35%
|
44
|
Southampton Test
|
4.36%
|
45
|
Chorley
|
4.38%
|
46
|
Bishop Auckland
|
4.45%
|
47
|
Ynys Môn (Anglesey)
|
4.98%
|
48
|
Coventry North West
|
4.98%
|
49
|
Bolton North East
|
5.07%
|
50
|
Hyndburn
|
5.13%
|
Labour's path to power (94 seats to gain a majority of 1)
Gower
|
Carlisle
|
Norwich North
|
Arfon
|
Derby North
|
Renfrewshire East
|
Stevenage
|
Reading West
|
Croydon Central
|
Leeds North West
|
Enfield Southgate
|
Gloucester
|
Vale Of Clwyd
|
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
|
Cannock Chase
|
Great Yarmouth
|
Bury North
|
Crewe and Nantwich
|
Morecambe and Lunesdale
|
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
|
Morley and Outwood
|
Erewash
|
Nuneaton
|
Thanet South
|
Thurrock
|
Hendon
|
Finchley and Golders Green
|
Chipping Barnet
|
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
|
Ipswich
|
Dudley South
|
Stourbridge
|
Brighton Kemptown
|
Stroud
|
South Ribble
|
Brighton Pavilion
|
Bolton West
|
Broxtowe
|
Worcester
|
Elmet and Rothwell
|
Weaver Vale
|
Northampton North
|
East Lothian
|
Milton Keynes South
|
Telford
|
Calder Valley
|
Rossendale and Darwen
|
Aberdeen South
|
Bedford
|
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
|
Swindon South
|
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
|
Plymouth Moor View
|
Pudsey
|
Southport
|
Camborne and Redruth
|
Lincoln
|
Sherwood
|
Preseli Pembrokeshire
|
Portsmouth South
|
Peterborough
|
Amber Valley
|
Pendle
|
Battersea
|
Cardiff North
|
Hastings and Rye
|
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
|
Edinburgh South West
|
Sheffield Hallam
|
Colne Valley
|
Dover
|
Redditch
|
Corby
|
Bristol North West
|
Reading East
|
Gravesham
|
Waveney
|
High Peak
|
Scarborough and Whitby
|
Dumfries and Galloway
|
Warrington South
|
Edinburgh North and Leith
|
Warwick and Leamington
|
Milton Keynes North
|
Southampton Itchen
|
Harrow East
|
Aberconwy
|
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
|
Keighley
|
Stockton South
|
Vale Of Glamorgan
| |
Warwickshire North
|
Northampton South
|
Crawley
|
If you are thinking “Now, where I have I seen this before) it’s because at the 1992 general election Labour also needed 94 seats to gain an overall majority and so I have simply copied their style of table. In order to gain a majority of one, Labour need a swing of 8.66% (whereas at Election 1992) they needed a swing of 8%
-------Top 25 UKIP targets
Number
|
Name of constituency
|
UKIP swing
|
1
|
Thurrock
|
0.98%
|
2
|
Thanet South
|
2.85%
|
3
|
Hartlepool
|
3.83%
|
4
|
Boston and Skegness
|
5.00%
|
5
|
Heywood and Middleton
|
5.46%
|
6
|
Dagenham and Rainham
|
5.78%
|
7
|
Rochester and Strood
|
6.79%
|
8
|
Southport
|
7.06%
|
9
|
Mansfield
|
7.15%
|
10
|
Great Grimsby
|
7.41%
|
11
|
Stoke-On-Trent North
|
7.61%
|
12
|
Rother Valley
|
7.76%
|
13
|
Plymouth Moor View
|
8.06%
|
14
|
Ynys Môn (Anglesey)
|
8.23%
|
15
|
Stoke-On-Trent Central
|
8.33%
|
16
|
Basildon South and Thurrock East
|
8.43%
|
17
|
Walsall North
|
8.50%
|
18
|
Dudley North
|
8.91%
|
19
|
Stoke-On-Trent South
|
8.98%
|
20
|
Penistone and Stocksbridge
|
9.55%
|
21
|
Bradford South
|
9.67%
|
22
|
Isle Of Wight
|
9.75%
|
23
|
Ashfield
|
9.81%
|
24
|
Castle Point
|
9.83%
|
25
|
Great Yarmouth
|
9.92%
|
-------
