ICM Poll converted into seats using Electoral Calculus

The actual full data is still to be published by ICM and we just have the headline rate to go by.

The headline rate was

Conservatives 39%
Labour 29%
UKIP 14%
Lib Dems 9%
Greens 4%

For the purpose of the calculator we had to shave 0.1% off each forecast as it came to more than 100%

Now the calculator can't account for regional variations as we don't have the data to input and as we have shown here the Lib Dems already seem to be on their way back to re gaining seats they lost in 2015 >>>>>Click here to see data

So I think any gains the Conservatives would make, would only then be lost to the Lib Dems. So yes it is a 10% poll lead but not much of change in the amount of seats each party has.


The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 40

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
N.Ire 18 00+018

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Cadbury
CambridgeCambridgeshireLIBgain fromLAB: Daniel Zeichner
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
Ealing Central and ActonEalingCONgain fromLAB: Rupa Huq
Enfield NorthEnfieldCONgain fromLAB: Joan Ryan
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLAB: Tulip Siddiq
HoveEast SussexCONgain fromLAB: Peter Kyle
Ilford NorthRedbridgeCONgain fromLAB: Wes Streeting
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Catherine Smith
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Greenwood
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Rob Marris
Ynys MonGwyneddNATgain fromLAB: Albert Owen
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.