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200 weeks to go or just weeks until the next UK General Election?

So on Thursday there will be just 200 weeks until the first Thursday in May 2020 when as part of the fixed term parliament act the date of the next UK General Election is fixed.

It does indeed remove the mystique and circus of trying to guess when a Prime Minister would call a general election. These days with even more social media than ever I am guessing it could have become unbearable with pressure.

Brought in by the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition in the 2010 parliament, it also helped them not have a sticky divorce at the end, as they already knew the date of separation. Although it seemed the Conservatives were already divvying up the CD collection well beforehand leaving the Lib Dems with all the dodgy copies brought from the flea market.

But since the EU referendum result it has almost been like a poorly kept surprise for the missus of a weekend break away to the highlands. Leaked in advance to gauge the response, so you can cancel and choose somewhere else if she tells you she doesn't like it. We have politicians of all persuasions advising of a Autumn General Election.

Firstly they would have to vote on it

Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
  • If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
  • If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".
In either of these two cases, the Monarch (on the recommendation of the prime minister) appoints the date of the new election by proclamation. Parliament is then dissolved 25 working days before that date.
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So either the Conservatives would have to vote against themselves as they are the largest party in a vote of no confidence. (Very unlikely) or the Conservatives would have to join forces with other Parties namely Labour to have the 2/3s rule passed. But Labour MPs might be daft but if the Conservatives would be calling a General Election in the hope of beating Labour and extending their lead so why would Labour vote for that? 434 MPs needed to make this happen.

What happens then if the Conservatives for show vote against themselves to get the Election or manage to get every other party to vote with them for a General Election.

By default the Conservatives are in a stronger position than Labour but that is currently because Labour are doing their level best to weaken themselves. The Conservatives may make gains from Labour but would they make as many gains as they are likely to lose to the lib dems?

Link to >>>>>> Notional results for parliamentary seats using 2016 council votes 

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The above link is quite promising for the Lib Dems, a party which would be campaigning to take the UK back into Europe they would be taking votes from Labour and Conservatives regretters as well as though who voted remain. UKIP would have a very hard task but would be battling hard all down the east coast for seats like Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Thanet, then round to the Isle of White. One or more likely to turn UKIP or if not be very close.

Scotland would see very little change, maybe 1 or 2 picked up from the SNP by other parties but there is very little more to be gained. The SNP still have a strong presence and with a opportunist election called they would still be in the ascendancy.

Wales though strong again for UKIP, would see Lib Dems coming back against the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru building on Welsh Assembly success and maybe taking Labour seats so again nothing for the Conservatives.

The result of it all.....

You would more than likely at best have a slim Conservative majority with the opposition Labour being weakened with less MPs but Lib Dems higher, or Conservatives falling short having to find a partner again and the Lib Dems being king makers.

So why give up what you definitely have now for a what you may or may not get in the future?

It doesn't make sense then politics just lately has not made sense at all so who knows. But I expect to still be looking at a 2020 UK General Election. What do you think?