Real Votes Not Opinion Polls (July 21st 2016)

I find it interesting from time to time just to look at the differences in by election results yesterday there were 11 by elections 10 in England and 1 in Wales. the one in Wales was a contest between Plaid Cymru & Labour only and easily won by Plaid Cymru. So I have had a look at the 10 English Council by election results.

Always difficult as you are getting figures sometimes from multi vote wards previously, they happen previously at differing times and as yesterday was a nice hot day with no real other main elections taking place, can see why it goes down from 31,167 votes to 12,753 votes cast yesterday. But it is votes cast not opinions sort and weighted in the hope of getting the outcome correct.

Now only one council seat changed hands yesterday with a gain for the Lib Dems in Westone, Northants. all the others stayed to form 6 Conservative holds and 3 Labour holds. Labour were defending much larger wards. But I think it still shows that if anything Labour hold there support together and get them out as where the Conservative vote didn't come out in the large numbers as previously.

Lib Dems see an increase in vote share. With Greens & UKIP seeing a decrease, but then if you don't stand a candidate what do you expect.

Cumulative Vote share change

Labour +10.4%
Lib Dems +6.9%
Conservatives -0.1%
Greens -4.4%
UKIP -5.5%
Others -7.3%

Votes cast from the previous by elections will be in brackets () Yesterdays votes are not.

Where it had been a multi seat ward fought last time the top vote is used.

nc = No Candidate

Party >
Council By Election
ConservativesLabourLib DemsUKIPGreensOthers
Exmouth Littleham - East Devon DC547 (1,667)193 (nc)467 (1,170)nc (1,164)nc (1,102)nc (1,224)
Honiton St Michael’s - East Devon DC362 (1,400)197 (nc)nc (nc)140 (734)nc (nc)211 (1,413)
Hackney Central - Hackney LBC101 (190)1,354 (2,094)113 (240)nc (nc)178 (751)55 (nc)
Chorley Rural North - Lancashire CC1,144 (1,525)1,042 (1,402)125 (140)303 (642)nc (nc)nc (nc)
Bellingham - Lewisham LBC302 (432)940 (1,819)180 (184)104 (nc)nc (nc)129 (595)
Balderton South - Newark and Sherwood DC 483 (1,265)nc (956)103 (nc)nc (nc)nc (nc)nc (nc)
Westone - Northampton BC319 (1,318)270 (722)583 (315)nc (nc)nc (nc)nc (nc)
Southcote - Reading UA381 (515)934 (1,325)77 (129)nc (nc)66 (106)nc (nc)
Warlingham West - Tandridge DC367 (593)nc (82)218 (218)64 (144)nc (nc)nc (nc)
Great Wyrley Town - South Staffordshire DC357 (1,787)230 (979)nc (nc)114 (825)nc (nc)nc (nc)
Total number of votes cast
Yesterday 12,753
(When By Election was last held - 31,167 votes)
4,363 - 34.2% (10,692 - 34.3%)5,160 - 40.5% (9,379 - 30.1%)1,866 - 14.6% (2,396 - 7.7%)725 - 5.7% (3,509 - 11.2%)244 - 1.9% (1,959 - 6.3%)395 - 3.1% (3,232 - 10.4%)