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UK General Election Forecast from Electoral Calculus


Current Prediction: Conservative majority 40

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33138.8%345
LAB31.2%23229.9%219
LIB8.1%87.5%6
UKIP12.9%114.0%1
Green3.8%13.2%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%01.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Feb 2016 to 23 Feb 2016, sampling 6,487 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
68%
Con/Nat coalition
15%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
8%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
4%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
Labour majority
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

During February, there was a slight loss of ground by the Conservatives, who on average are down about one and a half per cent, according to the pollsters. But they still enjoy a nine per cent lead over Labour, which would give them a clear majority in the House of Commons. 


Also this month, the Boundary Commissions started work on redrawing the seat boundaries. This should be finalised by 2018, with preliminary proposals published this autumn. Electoral Calculus expects to have seat-by-seat analysis of these proposals once they are available. 
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in February are: 


ICM (The Guardian) has Con 39, Lab 32, Lib 7, UKIP 11, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI has Con 39, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 12, Green 3 ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 38, Lab 31, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 3 YouGov (Times) has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 16, Green 3 
The averages: Con 39 (-1), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 8 (+1), UKIP 14 (nc), Grn 3 (-1). 


The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 40 seats, winning 345 seats (-3 seats since 31 January). 
Electoral Calculus