How 2014 European election results could be converted into Leave/Remain votes

Now this takes a leap of faith, but then again we are told it could be a leap into the dark.

But like the past by election in Oldham, Just not enough voters for UKIP to win Oldham West Royton by election (we called it right a month before the election) it was interesting to see just how many potential voters their would be for a particular party and this instance for leave/remain campaign.

So instead of depending on opinion polls and people answering questions to folks. This is where people got off their backsides and voted.

Splits are notional so for instance the UKIP vote is split 95% Leave 5% Remain due to the nature of the party.

***edit*** Thanks to comments on twitter.
Now I am well aware that the split within the Conservative party is more than likely to be 50/50 rather than the 80/20 we are using. But this is on the basis that Conservative and Labour voters left at this point to vote for UKIP. The splits are based on people who would vote leave but couldn't bring themselves to not vote for the party they support.

The Conservatives is split 80% remain 20% leave much like the cabinet has come out after David Camerons negotiations. Labour is split 85% remain 15% Leave,

Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens & Sinn Fein are seen as strongly for the remain,
Where as DUP seen 90/10 leave as they have announced they will support the leave campaign
BNP & English Democrats strongly for the Leave.
An Independence from Europe is the only ones we have done as 100% leave.

only parties who received over 100,000 votes have been included in this exercise. this also is on a low turnout. so is purely notional.

PartyVotes cast for themNotional LeaveNotional Remain
UKIP4,376,635(95%) 4,157,803(5%) 218,832
LABOUR4,020,646(15%) 603,092(85%) 3,417,554
CONSERVATIVES3,792,549(20%) 758,510(80%) 3,034,039
GREENS1,255,573(5%) 62,779(95%) 1,192,794
LIB DEMS1,087,633(5%) 54,382(95%) 1,033,251
SNP 389,503(5%) 19,475(95%) 370,028
AN INDY FROM EUROPE235,124(100%) 235,124(0) 0
BNP179,694(99%) 177,897(1%) 1,797
SINN FEIN159,813(1%) 1,598(99%) 158,215
DUP 131,163(95%) 124,605(5%) 6,558
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS126,024(99%) 124,764(1%) 1,260
PLAID CYMRU111,864(5%) 5,593(95%) 106,271
So the result?

Well according to these figure the remain camp has it 60.14% Remain to 39.86% Leave

The 2014 euro elections were a high point for UKIP and although this was a vote for sending MEP'S tothe European parliament in essence a chance for people to have a free vote on what they thought of Europe. So it can be classed that those who are in favour of Europe would vote for Euro positive parties and those against would vote for parties who wanted out of Europe.


based on these numbers there is not enough potential leave voters.

What are your thoughts?