The above is a link to an exercise yesterday using those who voted in the 2014 European Elections and see how they could potentially convert into Leave / Remain voters.
Much agitation occurred as people thought 80/20 split for the Tories wasn't right. and even though I explained the figure was there due to the high numbers who voted UKIP.
I thought we would try again but this time with the General Election and the consensus of the split. and it still shows Remain as the winner. There just doesn't seem to be the pool of Leave voters needed and this is on double the turnout used for the previous calculation.
Conservatives - 45% - 55%
Labour - 30% - 70%
LibDems - 15% - 85%
UKIP 98% - 2%
Greens 15% - 85%
SNP 20% - 80%
PC 20% - 80%
N.I. 35% - 65%
| Party | Votes Cast | Leave | Remain |
| Conservatives | 11,334,576 | (45%) 5,100,560 | (55%) 6,234,016 |
| Labour | 9,347,304 | (30%) 2,804,191 | (70%) 6,543,113 |
| LibDems | 2,415,862 | (15%) 362,379 | (85%) 2,053,482 |
| UKIP | 3,881,099 | (98%) 3,803,477 | (2%) 77,622 |
| Greens | 1,157,613 | (15%) 173,642 | (85%) 983,971 |
| SNP | 1,454,436 | (20%) 290,887 | (80%) 1,163,549 |
| PC | 181,704 | (20%) 36,340 | (80%) 145,364 |
| Northern Ireland | 718,512 | (35%) 251,479 | (65%) 467,033 |
Leave 12,822,955
Remain 17,668,150
30,491,105 votes
Remain 57.9%
Leave 42.1%
Still not enough leave voters.
Which concurs as the UKIP effect had started to wear off.
the percentages are nearer to the ones showing in popular opinion .... correct?
