Labour Gain 79 seats, Conservatives Lose 91.
In this "What-If" ("What if the Oldham West and Royton by-election result vote swings were repeated nationwide") UK-Elect forecast, the Labour Party are forecast to win 311 seats (+79), 72 ahead of the Conservative's 239 seats (-91), with the Scottish National Party on 55 seats (-1), the Liberal Democrats 18 (+10), the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 4, UKIP 4 (+3), Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UUP 2, Green 1 and Others 2.
The UK-Elect forecast was directly based on the Oldham West and Royton by-election result, with UK-Elect automatically calculating the equivalent national vote percentages during the forecasting process - Lab 37.78%, Con 27.20%, UKIP 15.44%, LD 7.89, Green 2.73%. The UK-Elect v10.1 method was used for the forecast (although the results produced by the common Uniform National Swing technique are actually very similar in this case). It is interesting to note that, in forecasting terms, the most significant factor in the Oldham result is the decline in the Conservative vote. As a result of this not only Labour, but also UKIP and the Liberal Democrats are predicted to gain what, for them, are significant extra seats.
This forecast was made using current UK electoral boundaries (see note below for more information).
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UK UK (With Gains) Scotland Wales London E England SW England SE England NW England NE England West Midlands East Midlands Yorks and Humberside Gains Losses Swing To Swing From 2nd
Notes: The forecast is based upon the current electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries are likely to change before the next election, and that it is expected that the changes will favour the Conservatives, perhaps by 10 or 15 seats or more.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on firstname.lastname@example.org.
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