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Latest General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 130

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33144.0%390
LAB31.2%23226.5%174
LIB8.1%88.4%7
UKIP12.9%110.8%0
Green3.8%14.3%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%00.6%0
N.Ire1818
Prediction based on opinion polls from 14-Oct-2016 to 1-Nov-2016, sampling 6,210 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
78%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Labour majority
5%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
Lab/Nat coalition
1%
No overall control
1%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
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There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 8 November 2016 at 

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 

Although only four pollsters published in October, their results were notably consistent and showed an increased lead for the Conservatives of around 16pc over Labour. This is the first full month after Jeremy Corbyn's re-election as Labour leader and it does not show that public are highly supportive of him. UKIP also had a poor month following their leadership difficulties and public spats. 
Electoral Calculus said nearly eight weeks ago that the Conservatives should think about having an election soon. This month's polls support that view, which is now enjoying wider discussion. But you read it here first. 

The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in October are: 
Ipsos-MORI has Con 47, Lab 29, Lib 7, UKIP 6, Green 4 BMG has Con 42, Lab 28, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 4 ICM (Guardian) has Con 43, Lab 27, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 5 YouGov (Times) has Con 41, Lab 27, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 4 
The averages: Con 44 (+3), Lab 26 (-2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 11 (-2), Grn 4 (nc). 
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 130 seats, winning 390 seats (+25 seats since 1 October).
 
You can now also follow Electoral Calculus on Twitter to get election-related tweets: 

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus