Current Prediction: Conservative majority 130
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 44.0% | 390 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 26.5% | 174 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 8.4% | 7 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 10.8% | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 4.3% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 14-Oct-2016 to 1-Nov-2016, sampling 6,210 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Labour majority |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| No overall control |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 8 November 2016 at
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Although only four pollsters published in October, their results were notably consistent and showed an increased lead for the Conservatives of around 16pc over Labour. This is the first full month after Jeremy Corbyn's re-election as Labour leader and it does not show that public are highly supportive of him. UKIP also had a poor month following their leadership difficulties and public spats.
Electoral Calculus said nearly eight weeks ago that the Conservatives should think about having an election soon. This month's polls support that view, which is now enjoying wider discussion. But you read it here first.
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in October are:
Ipsos-MORI has Con 47, Lab 29, Lib 7, UKIP 6, Green 4 BMG has Con 42, Lab 28, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 4 ICM (Guardian) has Con 43, Lab 27, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 5 YouGov (Times) has Con 41, Lab 27, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 4
The averages: Con 44 (+3), Lab 26 (-2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 11 (-2), Grn 4 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 130 seats, winning 390 seats (+25 seats since 1 October).
You can now also follow Electoral Calculus on Twitter to get election-related tweets:
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus
