UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, September 2015.

SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on September 18th 2015 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the latest opinion polls. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with a slightly increased majority.

Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.

The percentages input for this forecast were based on the latest opinion polls.

The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 51% Lab 22%, Con 18%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 45%, Lab 20%, Con 18%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 4% UKIP 3%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

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See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2011   Regions map and comparison with 2011   Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency   

Party Total Seats Change SNP 71 +3 Labour 26 -12 Conservative 24 +9 Green 5 +3 Liberal Democrat 3 -2 Ind 0 -1 Scottish National Party - Majority 13 Party AMS Seats Change Labour 26 +4 Conservative 19 +7 Green 5 +3 SNP 5 -11 Liberal Democrat 1 -2 Independent 0 -1 Additional Member Seats - Con Gain 7, SNP Lose 11.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.

Source UK ELECT