SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on September 18th 2015 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the latest opinion polls. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with a slightly increased majority.
Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages input for this forecast were based on the latest opinion polls.
The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 51% Lab 22%, Con 18%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 45%, Lab 20%, Con 18%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 4% UKIP 3%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
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Constituencies map and comparison with 2011 Regions map and comparison with 2011 Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.
Source UK ELECT