UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, September 2015.

SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on September 18th 2015 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the latest opinion polls. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with a slightly increased majority.
Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages input for this forecast were based on the latest opinion polls.
The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 51% Lab 22%, Con 18%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 45%, Lab 20%, Con 18%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 4% UKIP 3%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
If you would like to forecast the UK European Parliament seats, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase: Special offer: 50% off until end of September
If you would like to try UK-Elect first, the current Trial Version is available here: Latest UK-Elect Free Trial Version
See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2011   Regions map and comparison with 2011   Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency   
PartyTotal SeatsChange
Liberal Democrat3-2
Scottish National Party - Majority 13
PartyAMS SeatsChange
Liberal Democrat1-2
Additional Member Seats - Con Gain 7, SNP Lose 11.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies)Forecast for Scotland (Regions)
Forecast for Scottish HighlandsForecast for Scottish Lowlands
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, party in 2nd place)Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies gained)
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, with pie charts)Forecast for Scotland (showing most significant 'swing to')
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.