Some possible GE2020 scenarios: from Sam Beesley

If you have a projection, prediction or forecast of your own, feel free to share in the comment section and we could be featuring you next.

Sam Beesley responded to our call above and gave his thoughts below. Feel free to comment or even to give your own ideas. This is not just my blog but yours. It is no good me shouting in an empty forest if no one hears us. 


Here are some possible 2020 scenarios:

Prediction 1: Corbyn is unpopular and the Tories are let in by increases in Lib Dem, UKIP and Green support. Pro-EU vote with out voters heading to UKIP.
Con 357 (Some gains from Lab, including seats they lost e.g. Ealing Cen and Acton, Lancaster, Chester etc., some gains from SNP)
Lab 219 (Gain many seats from SNP, but lose some to Tories)
LD 15 (2 gains from Labour and 5 from SNP including Edinburgh West and Caithness)
UKIP 4 (1 gain from Tories in Thurrock, and Hartlepool and Dagenham gained from Labour)
Green 2 (gain Bristol West)
Plaid 4 (gain Ynys Mon)
SNP 31 (many losses to all main parties)
Prediction 2: Tories are unpopular after vote to stay in EU but no reform. 2017 Lab Leadership election is won by Dan Jarvis with Corbyn and McDonnell forming new party (Socialist Force.) UKIP does well. Con coalition with LD and DUP
Con 299 (losses to all parties)
Lab 250 (gains mainly from Tories in typical marginals such as Corby and Ipswich, but also from SNP)
LD 18 (gains from Tories in seats like Eastbourne and Torbay and a couple from SNP)
UKIP 8 (gains from both main parties in 2015 target seats including Thanet South)
Green 1
Plaid 3
SNP 44 (losses mainly to Labour)
Soc Force 9 (all in London apart from one in Scotland)
Prediction 3: Labour does very well after Tories become very unpopular. Tim Farron is surprisingly the new dark horse of British politics. UKIP lose some votes but gain some seats. Lab-SNP coalition
Con 222 (devastating losses to all parties)
Lab 311 (many gains from Tories even gaining seats like Aberconwy and Camborne)
LD 30 (gains many seats lost in 2015)
UKIP 3 (gain Thurrock and Thanet South)
Green 1
Plaid 2 (lose Carmarthen East)
SNP 45 (lose a few to Lab and LD but gain Dumfriesshire from Tories)
Prediction 4: A repeat of the pre-2015 election neck and neck mania, only this time it’s real. Boris Johnson and Andy Burnham are surprisingly popular. Greens pull out of Wales and back Plaid
Con 281 (like they said, some losses to Labour)
Lab 269 (like they said, some gains from Tories)
LD 20 (gains from Tories and Labour)
UKIP 3 (gain Thurrock and Thanet South)
Green 2 (gain Bristol West)
Plaid 3
SNP 54 (pretty unchanged but lose Edinburgh North and Renfrew East to Lab)
Prediction 5: New Electoral System is introduced as Jeremy Corbyn’s new idea. It is popular. Jeremy Corbyn then suffers a coup after Labour loses key figures like Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna because Corbyn put them last on their regional list. Nicola Sturgeon is replaced by Drew Hendry afterwards.
Con 205
Lab 189
LD 64
UKIP 112
Green 45
Plaid 10
SNP 25

Sam Beesley