With a week to go until the EU Referendum new Survation polling, on behalf of IG, shows “Leave” in the lead for the first time since our joint polling series began in April and Survation first started telephone polling the EU Referendum back in February.
"Leave's" seven-point spurt appears to show that they're swaying undecided voters, with our latest poll showing "Undecided" five points down from our last poll at the end of May, during which time the campaign has kicked off in earnest with multi-televised events and debates.
Results are as follows with changes from the previous Survation/IG poll (25/05) in brackets:
Remain 42% (-2) Leave 45% (+7) Undecided 13% (-5)
Excluding Undecided voters, headline results are:
Remain 48% (-6) Leave 52% (+6)
What About The Undecideds?
Even though the number of undecided voters in the initial voting intention dropped by 5 points since our last poll, some 13% say that they are still undecided with a week until polling day. These voters in the sample who told Survation that they were undecided were then “squeezed” with the question:
“If the referendum was today and you had to choose, would you vote to leave / vote to stay or would you not vote?”
Some of these undecided respondents then stated their preference for leave or remain after this “squeeze” question.
Adding back these respondents into the initial leave/remain voting intention once again had the effect of a slight (1%) boost to the Remain figure:
Remain 49% Leave 51%
Full data tables for this polling including all questions asked and the methodology used can be viewed here.
IG’s EU Referendum Barometer is currently showing a 58% chance that the UK will vote to Remain in the European Union. This week has seen a number of polls putting Leave in the lead which has seen their chances improve from 25% at the start of the week to an all-time high of 42% today.
The Barometer is an indicator of what those traders are predicting will happen in the 2016 UK referendum on membership of the European Union. The data is based on the political binary market IG has created for clients to trade on.
Matt Brief, Head of Dealing at IG Group, comments: “Today’s poll results reflect the general trend that has caused so much volatility in financial markets over the past week. The two key issues remain the economy and immigration, with the balance between these likely to be the key decider on which the UK’s membership of the EU stands or falls. Our clients still believe the economy will be the deciding factor on the 23rd June, they still believe there will be a late swing to the status quo – but it’s quickly becoming ‘too close to call’.
Survation interviewed 1,104 adults aged 18+ across the UK including Northern Ireland on behalf of IG by telephone on 16th June.