Link to >>> Map of what the new UK Parliamentary constituencies could look like & possible outcome
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Current Prediction: Conservative short 1 of majority
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 36.5% | 325 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 30.5% | 236 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 6.9% | 8 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 16.0% | 2 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 4.4% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 May 2016 to 19 May 2016, sampling 8,103 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Labour majority |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 30 May 2016 at
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Political and polling attention was focused away from Westminster during May
towards the local elections and the ongoing EU Referendum campaign. Only four
parliamentary polls were carried out, which did not show much change on the
previous position, with perhaps a slight softening of the Conservatives' lead.
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in May are:
ComRes (IoS, SMirror) has Con 36, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 17, Green 4
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 35, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 4
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 36, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 10, Green 5
Opinium (Observer) has Con 35, Lab 30, Lib 5, UKIP 18, Green 5
The averages: Con 36 (nc), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 7 (+1), UKIP 16 (nc), Grn 4 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be one seat short of a
majority, winning 325 seats (-4 seats since 1 May).
Electoral Calculus
