Pages

Latest UK General Election Forecast by Electoral Calculus

Link to >>> Forecasts, predictions & projections For Scottish & Welsh elections as well as the EU Referendum.

Link to >>> Map of what the new UK Parliamentary constituencies could look like & possible outcome

---

Current Prediction: Conservative short 1 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33136.5%325
LAB31.2%23230.5%236
LIB8.1%86.9%8
UKIP12.9%116.0%2
Green3.8%14.4%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%00.3%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 May 2016 to 19 May 2016, sampling 8,103 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
51%
Con/Nat coalition
26%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
7%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Labour majority
2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
---
There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 30 May 2016 at 

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 

Political and polling attention was focused away from Westminster during May 
towards the local elections and the ongoing EU Referendum campaign. Only four 
parliamentary polls were carried out, which did not show much change on the 
previous position, with perhaps a slight softening of the Conservatives' lead. 

The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in May are: 

ComRes (IoS, SMirror) has Con 36, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 17, Green 4 
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 35, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 4 
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 36, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 10, Green 5 
Opinium (Observer) has Con 35, Lab 30, Lib 5, UKIP 18, Green 5 

The averages: Con 36 (nc), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 7 (+1), UKIP 16 (nc), Grn 4 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be one seat short of a 
majority, winning 325 seats (-4 seats since 1 May). 

Electoral Calculus