Over 50% Of All Tory Leader Cash For Boris

ALTHOUGH his odds drifted out to 6/4 second favourite at one point, Boris Johnson has now been backed in to 8/11 favouritism (58%) with William Hill to be the next Tory leader, with Theresa May out to 7/4 (36%) second favourite.

'22.6% of all the bets we have taken for Tory leader are for Theresa May, who has attracted 21.2% of all the money staked, while 18.4% of all bets are for Boris – but they account for 50.2% of the money staked' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. 'Our turnover on the outcome of the leadership race is already approaching six figures.'We have seen a string of four figure bets for Boris,the largest for £2000, while the support for Theresa has slowed significantly and the biggest bet for her today was £454' 

ANGELA EAGLE is 11/8 (42%) favourite to succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader with Hills who make Tom Watson 9/4 (30%) second favourite.

WILLIAM HILL: NEXT TORY LEADER: 8/11 Johnson; 7/4 May; 6/1 Crabb; 12/1 Leadsom; 25/1 Fox; 25/1 Hunt; 50/1 Morgan. Others on request.

TO SUCCEED JEREMY CORBYN....11/8 Eagle; 9/4 Watson; 8/1 Benn; 10/1 Jarvis; 12/1 D Miliband; 14/1 Nnady; 16/1 Umunna. Others on request.

WHEN WILL NEXT GENERAL ELECTION TAKE PLACE? Evens 2016; 4/1 2017; 20/1 2018; 18/1 2019; 6/5 2020 OR LATER

WHEN WILL UK OFFICIALLY LEAVE EU?......Evens 2018 or earlier; 15/8 2019; 3/1 2020 or later

Further information.......Graham Sharpe....0780 3233702

Contact

Graham Sharpe, Media Relations Director

Tel +44 (0)7803 233702

Email gsharpe@williamhill.co.uk

Pat Glass not to seek re election at the next General Election

Pat Glass will not stand as a Labour candidate at the next General Election.

I have informed my CLP Chair that whenever the next General Election takes place, I will not be Labour's candidate. pic.twitter.com/g3DADx57KF

— Pat Glass (@PatGlassMP) June 28, 2016

Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum? from Survation

Post Brexit Scottish Attitudes Poll - Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum?

On behalf of Daily Record & Daily Mirror, Survation conducted polling by telephone Saturday looking at attitudes to a potential second Scottish Independence Referendum.Full data tables can be viewed here:

Sample Size - 1002 Scottish Adults aged 16+.

Fieldwork Date - June 25th

Method - Telephone (named person stratified sample landline & mobile phone combination contact points).

Weighting Targets - Data were weighted by sex, age, 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum vote (see note 1), 2016 Holyrood Constituency vote, likelihood to vote, and 8 category Scottish region.

EU Referendum Voting By Party

Although declared future likelihood to voting & declared turnout (2) is sytematically exaggerated in opinion polls, the declared Leave/Remain percentages by party among Scots in the EU Referendum were as follows:

Declared EU Referendum Splits Based on Holyrood 2016 Past Vote
	CON	LAB	LD	SNP	DNV
Voted Leave	27%	17%	16%	29%	32%
Voted Remain	73%	83%	84%	71%	68%

Declared EU Referendum Splits By Age

16-34  Voted Leave    23%  Voted Remain 77%

35-54  Voted Leave    24%  Voted Remain 76%

55+     Voted Leave    33%  Voted Remain 67%

Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum Post Brexit?

Following the result of the UK's referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK voted to leave, do you think?

Scotland should hold a second independence referendum - 41.9%

Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum - 44.7%

Don't know - 13.4%

=> Public support for a second referendum is split, with a small majority (52/48) of Scots currently against holding a second referendum:

If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question Should Scotland be an Independent country?, how would you vote?

Yes - 47.0%

No - 41.2%

Undecided - 10.0%

Refused/WNV - 2%

Base: Likely to Vote with undecided / refused removed

If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an Independent country?”, how would you vote?                

Yes - 54%

No - 46%           

Notes

1. Scottish Independence past vote shows evidence of false recall - which is backed up by near perfect balance of recall for Holyrood 2016 vote so this sample does appear to be politically balanced
2. Turnout was lower than expected in the UK’s independence referendum in Scotland on a relative basis vs more “leave” parts of the country.  If higher turnout could be considered to have favoured remain this may explain this sample’s lower declared remain % vs actual 62/38 for Scotland as a whole. Turnout for a second Scotland Independence Referendum would be significantly higher based on the 2014 actual turnout %.

Survation Ltd Mail on Sunday Post-Brexit Poll

Sample size: 1,033 Fieldwork dates: 24th - 25th June 2016
Method: UK adults aged 18+ interviewed online

Full data tables can be viewed here:

State of the Parties:
 

CON 32%

LAB 32%

UKIP 16%

LD 9%

SNP 4%

Others 7%

Following the result of the EU Referendum, David Cameron will resign in October as Leader of the Conservative Party. Of the following potential candidates who do you think should replace him as leader?
 

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	28%	30%
George Osborne	7%	9%
Theresa May	13%	20%
Michael Gove	6%	7%
Jeremy Hunt	1%	2%
Ruth Davidson	6%	4%
Stephen Crabb	2%	2%
Don’t know	37%	26%

(excl. DK)

	ALL	Con 2015
Boris Johnson	45%	40%
George Osborne	11%	12%
Theresa May	21%	27%
Michael Gove	10%	10%
Jeremy Hunt	2%	2%
Ruth Davidson	9%	5%
Stephen Crabb	2%	3%

=> Theresa May the only candidate noticeably more favourable
with CON 2015 voters than public as a whole.

Which of the following is closest to your view?

	ALL	CON 2015
David Cameron was right to announce he will resign by October	52%	43%
David Cameron was wrongto announce he will resign by October	34%	49%
Don’t know	13%	8%

=> Majority of public think Cameron was right to resign. CON 2015 voters more split, slightly lean towards he was wrong.

If you had to pick one of the two following pairs, which would you prefer as next leader of the Conservative Party? 
 

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	61%	58%
George Osborne	39%	42%

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	50%	47%
Theresa May	50%	53%

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	58%	60%
Michael Gove	42%	40%

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	62%	67%
Jeremy Hunt	38%	33%

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	56%	63%
Ruth Davidson	44%	37%

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson	61%	66%
George Osborne	39%	34%

Note: Theresa May again the only one who would "run Johnson close" in this scenario (he did actually edge it in unrounded
figs, 50.4% for him and 49.6% for May). All the others similarly popular, besides perhaps Ruth Davidson.

Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign in February.

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
 

	ALL	CON 2015
Boris Johnson’s primary motivation for joining was that leaving the EU was best for the UK	36%	40%
Boris Johnson’s primary motivation for joining was that it would help him become Prime Minister	38%	40%
Neither were his primary motivation for joining.	9%	8%
Don’t know	17%	12%

Both the public and Con 2015 voters split on this.

Do Leave voters regret voting leave?

Yes - 7%

No - 93%

Do Remain voters regret voting remain?

Yes - 4%

No - 96%

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
 

	ALL	CON 2015	LEAVE	REMAIN
David Cameron was right to call the referendum	55%	65%	84%	30%
David Cameron was wrong to call the referendum	34%	30%	9%	60%
Don’t know	11%	5%	7%	10%

=> Majority of public think Cameron was right to call referendum. Nearly 1/3 of remainers also think he was right

If the European Union offers further concessions to the UK regarding its membership, which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
 

	ALL	LEAVE	REMAIN
There should be second referendum	41%	18%	65%
There should not be a second referendum	47%	73%	24%
Don’t know	12%	9%	11%

Specifically, if the European Union agreed to exempt the UK from the free movement of people, how would you vote if there was a second referendum?
 

	ALL	LEAVE	REMAIN
Vote to Leave	37%	75%	2%
Vote to Remain	49%	11%	92%
Don’t know	13%	14%	6%
Refused	1%	<1%	<1%

One in ten leavers would vote remain if the European Union agreed to exempt the UK from the free movement of people.

Nicola Sturgeon has said that a second Scottish Independence Referendum is “highly likely” following

the EU Referendum result saying it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced the prospect

of leaving the EU as majority of Scots that voted were in favour of remain.

Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?

	ALL	ENGLAND	SCOTLAND*
Scotland should hold a second independence referendum	41%	42%	48%*
Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum	43%	42%	44%*
Don’t know	16%	17%	8%*

*Scotland sub sample is very small n=83 so margin of error very high and subject to sample error.

England sample is split over whether Scotland should hold a second IndyRef following the EU result.

[TO LEAVERS ONLY]

Had you known that a Leave victory could result in a second Scottish Independence Referendum, would this have...?

Changed - 3%

Not changed - 92%

DK - 5%

How do you think the UK leaving the EU will affect the following over the next five years?
 

	For the better	For the worse	Neither for the better nor worse
Your employment	23%	26%	52%
Your personal Income	20%	37%	42%
Your pension	19%	36%	45%
The amount of tax you pay	19%	42%	39%
Your health	25%	24%	51%

Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn faces a motion of no confidence in his leadership after his performance in the EU Referendum from some Labour MPs. This will be debated on Monday at a meeting of Labour MPs.

Which of the following is closest to your opinion?

	ALL	LAB 2015
Jeremy Corbyn should step down as Labour leader	55%	53%
Jeremy Corbyn should not step down as Labour leader	26%	37%
Don’t know	18%	11%

A majority of LAB 2015 voters think Corbyn should step down.

Of the following Labour politicians, who would you say is the most "impressive"?

Note, official MP photographs were used in this question.
 

	ALL	LAB 2015
Chuka Umunna	10%	11%
Dan Jarvis	5%	4%
Andy Burnham	16%	21%
Yvette Cooper	9%	12%
Tom Watson	4%	6%
Sadiq Khan	19	21%
Don’t know	36%	25%

(excl. DK)

Of the following Labour politicians, who would you say is the most "impressive"?

Note, in order to remind the public potentially unfamiliar with names of politicians, official MP photographs were used in this question to remind the public of the identity of the person. Notwithstanding this, some name recognition will play a part in respondent's answers. In the past, Survation use video clip polling to boost the potential for lesser known persons (such as Dan Jarvis) to have a fair chance of assessment.

	ALL	LAB 2015
Chuka Umunna	15%	15%
Dan Jarvis	8%	6%
Andy Burnham	26%	28%
Yvette Cooper	15%	16%
Tom Watson	6%	8%
Sadiq Khan	30%	33%