This exercise is quite a leap of faith due to the not to reliable nature of opinion polls. and the not altogether up to date records we have about our nations population. Then to add to the mix you have to try to predict how many will turn out. But it still makes for an interesting bit of information mining to see what gems we have turned up.
So we have used the age range from the latest yougov polling
Source to polling data and I have found this info about age breakdown of the UK Source to voters age
What I have used below is those who say they are 10 out of 10 absolutely certain to vote as the turnout. Then I have used the percentages from page 3 with the exclusion of don't knows or won't votes. Due to the fact that if you are absolutely certain to vote there must be a strong possibility you know who you are voting for.
So this should give an indication of first round voting. I have only done this for the 2 main contenders with the others clumped as just that others.
In each age category you will see the yougov share of that age group for the person or others and then the votes that equates too after turnout.
|Candidate||Aged 18-24||Aged 25-39||Aged 40-59||Aged 60+||Total votes|
|Goldsmith||31% - 81,209||28% - 224,801||34% - 394,380||50% - 343,018||1,043,408|
|Khan||52% - 136,220||54% - 433,547||47% - 545,173||27% - 185,229||1,300,169|
|Others||17% - 44,534||18% - 144,517||19% - 220,390||23% - 157,789||567,230|
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