Current Prediction: Conservative majority 44
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 39.8% | 347 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 30.1% | 218 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 6.5% | 5 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 13.2% | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 4.4% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5% | 0 |
| N.Ire | | 18 | | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Nov 2015 to 20 Dec 2015, sampling 6,637 people.
Source
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 3 January 2016 at
December saw no major changes, but a small decrease in the Conservatives' lead over Labour. All pollsters see the Conservatives having a lead of several points ahead of Labour, but on average the lead declined by about 1pc. It still leaves the Conservatives in a strong position at the end of the year, with the likely result being a larger Conservative majority in Westminster.
The most recent polls from the five pollsters who published polls in December are:
YouGov (Times) has Con 41, Lab 30, Lib 6, UKIP 16, Green 3 ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 37, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 11, Green 5 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 38, Lab 31, Lib 9, UKIP 9, Green 6 Opinium (Observer) has Con 38, Lab 30, Lib 5, UKIP 16, Green 5 ICM (The Guardian) has Con 39, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 10, Green 3
The averages: Con 40 (nc), Lab 30 (+1), Lib 6 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1), Grn 4 (+1).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 44 seats, winning 347 seats (-4 seats since 29 November).
Electoral Calculus
