Point 1 Link to tables Which shows how much Remain/Leave rUK would need to counteract England, if England as whole votes to leave the EU. In the table below you see that Scotland has a 10% higher turnout and larger remain but still wouldn't have the votes to change the result.
Point 2 Just how reliable are polls? Link to Survations last EURef Poll Those definite to vote In Northern Ireland has shot up by 30% and they now want to leave rather than stay. May it have something to do with that you are getting this information from just 13 respondents, of which 3 don't know. I think I could get on a plane to Belfast walk the streets of the area and get more useful information, and at have least more than 13 peoples view on it.
The previous poll had over 10,000 respondents of which they found over 160 for Northern Ireland, this one had just over a 1,000 and is why we have such small numbers for rUK and such swings from the last poll me thinks.
But these are the figures we have. so they are the figures which I use.
The turnout for each region is taken from the figures of those who say they will definitely vote by each region
|Country (Turnout)||electorate||Leave / Remain||Leave vote totals||Remain vote totals|
|England (59.8%)||38,806,649||54.3 / 45.7||12,601,062||10,605,313|
|Scotland (69%)||4,094,784||42.1 / 56.8||1,189,493||1,604,827|
|Wales (69.6%)||2,282,297||38.4 / 61.6||609,975||978,502|
|Northern Ireland (79.1%)||1,236,683||68.3 / 31.7||668,121||310,094|
link to poll