There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 1 November 2015 at
Current Prediction: Conservative majority 16
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 38.3% | 333 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 31.5% | 232 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 7.0% | 6 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 12.6% | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 3.4% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 3 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 1.7% | 0 |
| N.Ire | | 18 | | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Oct 2015 to 25 Oct 2015, sampling 4,959 people.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Whilst the pollsters are still investigating their polling error at the last General Election, the Electoral Calculus poll-of-polls now includes a new factor to correct for pollster bias. In May the polls had an error of 4.3pc in the lead of the Conservatives over Labour. To allow for this, the poll of polls will add an offset of half of this bias (2.15pc) to the Conservative lead. This offset will be reviewed once the BPC investigation has finished and pollsters have improved their methodology.
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in October are:
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 38, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 11, Green 3 Opinium has Con 37,Lab 32,Lib 5, UKIP 15, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 10, UKIP 12, Green 3 ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 38, Lab 33, Lib 8, UKIP 10, Green 3 The averages: Con 38 (nc), Lab 32 (nc), Lib 7 (nc), UKIP 13 (nc), Grn 3 (nc). The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 16 seats, winning 333 seats (+5 seats since 4 October).
Electoral Calculus
