There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 29 November 2015 at
Current Prediction: Conservative majority 52
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 40.4% | 351 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 29.1% | 213 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 6.8% | 6 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 13.6% | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 3.3% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 1.3% | 0 |
| N.Ire | | 18 | | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 13-Nov-2015 to 20-Nov-2015, sampling 6,974 people.
November polls generally saw an increase of the Conservative lead over Labour. Most polls showed a Conservative lead of around 7pc, but one pollster (ComRes) measured it at 15pc. At the moment that looks like an outlier which overstates the trend, but the trend itself is real - the Conservatives are gaining over Labour.
The most recent polls from the five pollsters who published polls in November are:
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 39, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 12, Green 3 BMG Research has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 41, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 7, Green 4 Survation (Leave.EU) has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 6, UKIP 16, Green 3 ComRes (IoS;S.Mirror) has Con 42, Lab 27, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 3
The averages: Con 40 (+2), Lab 29 (-3), Lib 7 (nc), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 3 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 52 seats, winning 351 seats (+18 seats since 1 November).
Electoral Calculus
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