Conservatives Gain 6 seats, Labour lose 5.
In this detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast, the Conservative Party are forecast to win 336 seats (+6), 109 ahead of Labour's 227 seats (-5), with the Scottish National Party on 55 seats (-1), the Liberal Democrats 8, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 4, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UUP 2, UKIP 1, Green 1 and Others 2.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 40%, Lab 31%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 3.5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 51%, Lab 22%, Con 17%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 37% Con 28%, UKIP 14%, Plaid Cymru 12%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 43%, Con 36%, UKIP 8%, Lib Dem 7.5%, Green 4.5% Other parties votes were not specifically set.
This forecast was made using current UK electoral boundaries (see note below for more information).
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Notes: The forecast base was the 2015 General Election. The forecast was made using the UK-Elect v10.0 method, on a separate regional basis for Scotland, Wales, London, and Great Britain. The forecast is based upon the current electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries are likely to change before the next election, and that it is expected that the changes will favour the Conservatives, perhaps by 10 or 15 seats or more.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.
