UK-Elect London Assembly Forecast

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 2

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 London Assembly Election. It predicts that Labour will again fall two seats short of a majority.

This forecast was created on October 2nd 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next London Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include theScottish Parliament Forecast (Sep 18 2015) and the Welsh Assembly Forecast (Sep 24 2015).

Forecast percentages were based primarily on opinion poll percentages. The overall vote percentages used were: Constituency Vote: Lab 42%, Con 35%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6%AMS (Add-on Seats) Vote: Lab 40%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 6%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, thecurrent opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

PartyOverall SeatsChange
Liberal Democrat1-1
Overall - Labour Short By 2
Liberal Democrat1-1
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 2, LD and Lab lose 1
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for London (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead)Forecast for London (2nd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 3rd)
Forecast for London (3rd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 4th)Forecast for London (Most Significant 'Swing To')
Forecast for London (UKIP Vs Green Percentages)Forecast for London (Liberal Democrat Vs Green Percentages)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2012 London Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the London Assembly elections.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. UK-Elect Standard and Professional Edition users who would like to reproduce this forecast should first update their London Assembly 2012 data-files (see the UK-Elect Downloads Page for details).
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on