Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Sep 2015 to 30 Sep 2015, sampling 8,280 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
Con choice of Lib/Nat
Nat choice of Con/Lab
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
The first election prediction since the May general election is now available. September was the first month after the summer lull when there was a significant amount of polling conducted. However, the pollsters' numbers may still be taken with a large pinch of salt. The British Polling Council inquiry into the polls' error is still under way, so it is difficult to say that all the lessons have been learnt yet. The most recent polls from the six pollsters who published polls in September are: Survation (Mail on Sunday) has Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 6,UKIP 13,Green 4 ICM (The Guardian) has Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 8,UKIP 13,Green 3 Opinium (Opinium) has Con 37,Lab 32,Lib 6,UKIP 14,Green 4 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 39,Lab 34,Lib 9,UKIP 7,Green 4 ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 39,Lab 30,Lib 9,UKIP 12,Green 4 YouGov (The Sun) has Con 37,Lab 31,Lib 7,UKIP 17,Green 2 The averages: Con 38 (nc), Lab 32 (+1), Lib 7 (-1), UKIP 13 (nc), Grn 3 (-1). The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 6 seats, winning 328 seats (-3 seats since the general election in May). Given the uncertainty on the polls' accuracy, this figure is itself uncertain. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Electoral Calculus