UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 3

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 3 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP.
This forecast was created on May 27th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election. 

The overall percentages used for this forecast were based on the actual result at the 2015 UK General Election. The percentages used for both the Constituency and AMS Regional Member vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 36.88% Con 27.22%, UKIP 13.64%, Plaid Cymru 12.13%, Lib Dem 6.53%, Green 2.56%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (In reality of course, the AMS votes are likely to differ from the constituency votes, so this forecast should be regarded as a "What If the 2016 Welsh Assembly percentages were similar to the 2015 UK General Election" forecast. As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies reaches about 5% in the AMS regional vote, it will start to win seats rapidly.)
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, thecurrent opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
PartyOverall SeatsChange
Plaid Cymru7-4
Liberal Democrat2-3
Overall - Labour Short By 3
Plaid Cymru2-4
Liberal Democrat0-4
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 7, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem lose 4
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 1st Place)Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 2nd Place)
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead)Forecast for Wales (Votes and Seats Piecharts)
Forecast for Wales (Regions)Forecast for Wales (Regions, 2nd Place)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on