SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on May 26th 2015 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the 2015 UK General Election result. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with an increased majority of 17 seats. They are forecast to gain 5 seats overall.
Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages input for this forecast were based on the 2015 UK General Election, with the actual percentages used for the constituency vote, and slightly adjusted percentages used for the AMS vote. (In reality of course, the AMS votes are likely to differ more significantly, so this forecast should be regarded as a "What If the 2016 Scottish Parliament percentages were similar to the 2015 UK General Election" forecast. If UKIP or the Green Party are able to increase their AMS vote to around 5% then they will rapidly start to win seats, perhaps as many as 8 seats if they can reach 7%.)
The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 49.97% Lab 24.3%, Con 14.92%, Lib Dem 7.55%, UKIP 1.62%, Green 1.35%. Regional member vote: SNP 48.97%, Lab 23.3%, Con 13.92%, Lib Dem 6.51 UKIP 3.62%, Green 3.35%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, thecurrent opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
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Constituencies map and comparison with 2011 Regions map and comparison with 2011 Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.