General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 100

Party	2015 Votes	2015 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.8%	331	42.1%	375
LAB	31.2%	232	27.5%	188
LIB	8.1%	8	8.6%	7
UKIP	12.9%	1	11.4%	1
Green	3.8%	1	4.3%	1
SNP	4.9%	56	4.9%	56
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	4
Minor	0.8%	0	0.7%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Aug 2016 to 28 Aug 2016, sampling 5,916 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	72%
Con/Nat coalition	7%
Labour majority	7%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	6%
Lab/Nat coalition	3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	2%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 4 September 2016 at 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The growth of the Conservative lead over Labour continued through August, 
although polling was relatively light. Only four pollsters published a poll this 
month but they all agree the Conservative lead is around 11pc-14pc. This 
continues to be at the expense of both Labour and UKIP, who are both currently 
running leadership elections. 

The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in August are: 

TNS has Con 39, Lab 26, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 7 
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 45, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 6, Green 4 
YouGov (Times) has Con 40, Lab 29, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 3 
ICM (Guardian) has Con 41, Lab 27, Lib 9, UKIP 13, Green 4 

The averages: Con 42 (+2), Lab 28 (-1), Lib 9 (+1), UKIP 11 (-2), Grn 4 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 100 
seats, winning 375 seats (+25 seats since 31 July). 

Also new this month is the ability to run the user-defined predictor 
userpoll.html 
under the hypothesis of a split Labour party. 

Electoral Calculus 

-----------------------------------------

When using the 600 seat model but with the same numbers

National Prediction: Conservative majority 120

Party	2015 Votes	2015 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.8%	324	42.1%	36	0	+36	360
LAB	31.2%	202	27.5%	0	35	-35	167
LIB	8.1%	3	8.6%	1	0	+1	4
UKIP	12.9%	1	11.4%	0	1	-1	0
Green	3.8%	1	4.3%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	4.9%	50	4.9%	0	1	-1	49
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	0	0	+0	3
Minor	0.8%	0	0.6%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		16		0	0	+0	16

This prediction is based on the projected new 2018 constituency boundaries (600 seats).

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2015
Alyn and Deeside	Clwyd	CON	gain from	LAB	: Mark Tami
Battersea and Vauxhall	South London	CON	gain from	LAB	: Unknown (changed seat)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Borders	CON	gain from	NAT	: Calum Kerr
Birmingham Erdington and Castle Bromwich	Birmingham	CON	gain from	LAB	: Jack Dromey
Birmingham Harborne	Birmingham	CON	gain from	LAB	: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham Northfield	Birmingham	CON	gain from	LAB	: Richard Burden
Blackpool South	Lancashire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Gordon Marsden
Bolton West	Western Manchester	CON	gain from	LAB	: Unknown (changed seat)
Bradford East and Horsforth	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Imran Hussain
Bury North	Western Manchester	CON	gain from	LAB	: Unknown (changed seat)
Cambridge	Cambridgeshire	LIB	gain from	LAB	: Daniel Zeichner
Chester	Cheshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Chris Matheson
Chorley	Lancashire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Lindsay Hoyle
Coventry South	Coventry and Solihull	CON	gain from	LAB	: Jim Cunningham
Darlington	Durham	CON	gain from	LAB	: Jenny Chapman
Derby East	Derbyshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Margaret Beckett
Derbyshire North East	Derbyshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Natascha Engel
Dewsbury	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Paula Sherriff
Ealing Central	South London	CON	gain from	LAB	: Rupa Huq
Enfield North	North London	CON	gain from	LAB	: Joan Ryan
Flint and Denbighshire North	Clwyd	CON	gain from	LAB	: Unknown (changed seat)
Halifax	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and Kilburn	North London	CON	gain from	LAB	: Tulip Siddiq
Harwich and Clacton	Essex	CON	gain from	UKIP	: Douglas Carswell
Hove	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LAB	: Peter Kyle
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	Humber area	CON	gain from	LAB	: Alan Johnson
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Teesside	CON	gain from	LAB	: Tom Blenkinsop
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Staffordshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Paul Farrelly
Nottingham North and Hucknall	Nottinghamshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Graham Allen
Nottingham South and West Bridgford	Nottinghamshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Lillian Greenwood
Plymouth Devonport	Devon	CON	gain from	LAB	: Unknown (changed seat)
Scunthorpe	Humber area	CON	gain from	LAB	: Nic Dakin
Southampton Test	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Alan Whitehead
Spen Valley	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Jo Cox
Stoke-on-Trent North	Staffordshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Ruth Smeeth
Wolverhampton West	Black Country	CON	gain from	LAB	: Rob Marris
Wrexham Maelor	Clwyd	CON	gain from	LAB	: Ian Lucas

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.