Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017
Follow the link (council ward) to the result you are interested in. they also contain a review by Andrew Teale
Derby, Allestree CON HOLD
West Lindsey, Cherry Willingham CON HOLD
North Norfolk, Glaven Valley LD HOLD
Wellingborough, Finedon CON HOLD
Dacorum, Adeyfield West LD GAIN
Cotswold, Stow LD GAIN
Blaenau, Gwent, Brynmawr INDY HOLD
Blackpool, Tydesley LAB HOLD
Council by elections for the 29th September 2016
Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017
Collated by Maxque
Tyldesley - Blackpool UA - Eddie Collett (Labour) died, aged 58. He was a councillor since 1991 (at the time Blackpool was a Lancashire district, it only became a unitary in 1997), except for the 2007-2011 term (he represented Alexandra ward before 2003). He was the Mayor in 2013-2014, a former Deputy Leader and a Cabinet Member.
2015: Lab 1145/1145, Con 872/741, UKIP 658, LD 167, Ind 144
2011: Lab 1137/1105, Con 689/667
2007: Con 833/802, Lab 775/749, LD 327
2003: Lab 1387/1294, Con 872/740, LD 435
David Collett (Labour Party)
Moira Graham (Conservative and Unionist Party)
Paul Hindley (Liberal Democrats)
Kim Knight (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Brynmawr - Blaenau Gwent - John Hopkins (Independent) died. He was a councillor since 1991, first on Blaenau Gwent District and then, after 1995, on the Unitary. He was a former Council Leader and the leader of the Labour Group (until he resigned in 2007, about to face a non-confidence vote from other Labour councillors) and Independent Group (until he resigned in 2014 due to ill health). He left Labour in 2009, due to disagreements about school closings.
2012: Ind 943/713/643/499, Lab 708/487/399
2008: Ind 1283/585/536, Lab 1071/695/645, People’s Voice 296
2004: Lab 1599/1255/1098, Ind 803, LD 514
People’s Voice was the group of supporters of Peter Law, the late Independent MP (and Labour AM) for Blaenau Gwent.
The two Labour councillors of 2008 stood as Independents in 2012 (and one of them was reelected)
Julian Gardner (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Wayne Hodgins (Independent)
Stow - Cotswold DC - Barry Dare (Conservative) died at the age of 79. He was a councillor since 2003, representing Blockley before 2015. He had a longer career on Gloucestershire County Council, where he was a member for 20 years (1993-2005 for Moreton-in-the-Marsh, 2005-2013 for Moreton-Stow). He was also the Conservative group leader from 2002 to 2010 and, as such, Leader of the Council from 2005 to 2010. He was also, 5 decades ago, a councillor for the Municipal Borough of Twickenham.
2015: Con 783, LD 613
Dilys Neill (Liberal Democrats)
David Penman (Conservative Party Candidate)
Adeyfield West - Dacorum BC - Sharon Adshead (Conservative) died, at the age of 63. She was a councillor since 2015 and is the mother of Graham Adshead, councillor for Adeyfield East.
2015: Con 763/706, LD 715/463, Lab 696/450, UKIP 672
Mar 2013 by: LD 363, Lab 278, Con 229, UKIP 193, ED 51
2011: Con 619/594, Lab 611/592, LD 209/204
Mar 2010 by: Con 486, Lab 429, LD 362, BNP 203
2007: Lab 518/502, Con 508/481, LD 200/178
Rachel Biggs (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Gary Cook (The Labour Party Candidate)
Adrian England (Liberal Democrats)
Tony Gallagher (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Angela Lynch (The Green Party)
Allestree - Derby UA - Richard Smalley (Conservative) resigned ten days after the May elections, as it has been found he used the address of a friend in Allestree on his nomination paper, despite not living in Derby (and not being eligible for election). Age 49, he was previously a councillor for Oakwood between 2002 and 2008 and returned to Council in 2016.
2016-2020 term
2016: Con 2820, Lab 785, LD 534, UKIP 508
2015: Con 4867, Lab 1835, UKIP 1005, LD 883
2014: Con 2621, Lab 998, UKIP 925, LD 289
2012: Con 2040, Lab 1289, UKIP 647, LD 179, Grn 172
2011: Con 3486, Lab 1756, LD 579
2010: Con 4908, LD 1841, Lab 1608
Oct 2009 by: Con 1988, LD 1037, Lab 532, BNP 242
2008: Con 3234, Lab 739, LD 633, BNP 563
2007: Con 3172, Lab 940, LD 801
2006: Con 3228, Lab 962, LD 763
2004: Con 2879, Lab 1246, UKIP 1174, LD 1038
2003: Con 2132, LD 1053, Lab 1021
2002: Con 2726/2621/2529, Lab 1274/1159/920, LD 721/559/488
Marten Kats (The Green Party - Say No To Racism)
Gaurav Pandey (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Ged Potter (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Deena Smith (Liberal Democrat)
Oleg Sotnicenko (Labour Party)
Glaven Valley - North Norfolk DC - Andrew Wells (Liberal Democrat) resigned, due to accepting a job offer from a London-based international law firm. Aged 27, he was a councillor since 2015 and the Leader of the Liberal Democrat group.
2015: LD 634, Con 438, UKIP 148, Lab 78, Grn 53
2011: Con 500, LD 232, Lab 95, Grn 84, UKIP 83
2007: Con 569, LD 431
2003: Con 623, LD 275, Grn 52
Stephen Burke (Labour Party)
John Dymond (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Alicia Hull (The Green Party)
Andrew Livsey (Conservative Party Candidate)
Karen Ward (Liberal Democrat Candidate)
Finedon - Wellingborough BC - John Bailey (Conservative) died. He was a very long-serving councillor, serving on the Wellingborough Borough Council since its creation in 1973, and before that on the Wellingborough Urban District from 1967 to 1973. He was the Mayor in 1976-1977 and 2004-2005 and the Leader between 2005 and 2011. He was the Housing Chair for 27 years and was the Audit Chair at the time of his death. He was also a County Councillor between 1970 and 2013 (he was the Mayor for his last year) and a parish councillor since 1983. During his working life, he was a programmer and database administrator.
2015: Con 1250/944, Lab 720, UKIP 698
2011: Con 935/847, Lab 612
2007: Con 909/720, Lab 539
2003: Con 768/652, Lab 527/407
Steve Ayland (Labour Party)
Barbara Bailey (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Allan Shipman (United Kingdom Independence Party)
John Wheaver (Liberal Democrat)
Cherry Willingham - West Lindsay DC - Alexander Bridgwood (Conservative) resigned to join the armed forces. Aged 24, he was first elected councillor in 2015.
2015: Con 1726/1696/1540, Lincolnshire Independents 1561, Lab 1151/997
Wendy Beckett (Labour Party)
Trevor Bridgwood (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Maureen Palmer (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Collated by Maxque
Tyldesley - Blackpool UA - Eddie Collett (Labour) died, aged 58. He was a councillor since 1991 (at the time Blackpool was a Lancashire district, it only became a unitary in 1997), except for the 2007-2011 term (he represented Alexandra ward before 2003). He was the Mayor in 2013-2014, a former Deputy Leader and a Cabinet Member.
2015: Lab 1145/1145, Con 872/741, UKIP 658, LD 167, Ind 144
2011: Lab 1137/1105, Con 689/667
2007: Con 833/802, Lab 775/749, LD 327
2003: Lab 1387/1294, Con 872/740, LD 435
David Collett (Labour Party)
Moira Graham (Conservative and Unionist Party)
Paul Hindley (Liberal Democrats)
Kim Knight (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Brynmawr - Blaenau Gwent - John Hopkins (Independent) died. He was a councillor since 1991, first on Blaenau Gwent District and then, after 1995, on the Unitary. He was a former Council Leader and the leader of the Labour Group (until he resigned in 2007, about to face a non-confidence vote from other Labour councillors) and Independent Group (until he resigned in 2014 due to ill health). He left Labour in 2009, due to disagreements about school closings.
2012: Ind 943/713/643/499, Lab 708/487/399
2008: Ind 1283/585/536, Lab 1071/695/645, People’s Voice 296
2004: Lab 1599/1255/1098, Ind 803, LD 514
People’s Voice was the group of supporters of Peter Law, the late Independent MP (and Labour AM) for Blaenau Gwent.
The two Labour councillors of 2008 stood as Independents in 2012 (and one of them was reelected)
Julian Gardner (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Wayne Hodgins (Independent)
Stow - Cotswold DC - Barry Dare (Conservative) died at the age of 79. He was a councillor since 2003, representing Blockley before 2015. He had a longer career on Gloucestershire County Council, where he was a member for 20 years (1993-2005 for Moreton-in-the-Marsh, 2005-2013 for Moreton-Stow). He was also the Conservative group leader from 2002 to 2010 and, as such, Leader of the Council from 2005 to 2010. He was also, 5 decades ago, a councillor for the Municipal Borough of Twickenham.
2015: Con 783, LD 613
Dilys Neill (Liberal Democrats)
David Penman (Conservative Party Candidate)
Adeyfield West - Dacorum BC - Sharon Adshead (Conservative) died, at the age of 63. She was a councillor since 2015 and is the mother of Graham Adshead, councillor for Adeyfield East.
2015: Con 763/706, LD 715/463, Lab 696/450, UKIP 672
Mar 2013 by: LD 363, Lab 278, Con 229, UKIP 193, ED 51
2011: Con 619/594, Lab 611/592, LD 209/204
Mar 2010 by: Con 486, Lab 429, LD 362, BNP 203
2007: Lab 518/502, Con 508/481, LD 200/178
Rachel Biggs (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Gary Cook (The Labour Party Candidate)
Adrian England (Liberal Democrats)
Tony Gallagher (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Angela Lynch (The Green Party)
Allestree - Derby UA - Richard Smalley (Conservative) resigned ten days after the May elections, as it has been found he used the address of a friend in Allestree on his nomination paper, despite not living in Derby (and not being eligible for election). Age 49, he was previously a councillor for Oakwood between 2002 and 2008 and returned to Council in 2016.
2016-2020 term
2016: Con 2820, Lab 785, LD 534, UKIP 508
2015: Con 4867, Lab 1835, UKIP 1005, LD 883
2014: Con 2621, Lab 998, UKIP 925, LD 289
2012: Con 2040, Lab 1289, UKIP 647, LD 179, Grn 172
2011: Con 3486, Lab 1756, LD 579
2010: Con 4908, LD 1841, Lab 1608
Oct 2009 by: Con 1988, LD 1037, Lab 532, BNP 242
2008: Con 3234, Lab 739, LD 633, BNP 563
2007: Con 3172, Lab 940, LD 801
2006: Con 3228, Lab 962, LD 763
2004: Con 2879, Lab 1246, UKIP 1174, LD 1038
2003: Con 2132, LD 1053, Lab 1021
2002: Con 2726/2621/2529, Lab 1274/1159/920, LD 721/559/488
Marten Kats (The Green Party - Say No To Racism)
Gaurav Pandey (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Ged Potter (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Deena Smith (Liberal Democrat)
Oleg Sotnicenko (Labour Party)
Glaven Valley - North Norfolk DC - Andrew Wells (Liberal Democrat) resigned, due to accepting a job offer from a London-based international law firm. Aged 27, he was a councillor since 2015 and the Leader of the Liberal Democrat group.
2015: LD 634, Con 438, UKIP 148, Lab 78, Grn 53
2011: Con 500, LD 232, Lab 95, Grn 84, UKIP 83
2007: Con 569, LD 431
2003: Con 623, LD 275, Grn 52
Stephen Burke (Labour Party)
John Dymond (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Alicia Hull (The Green Party)
Andrew Livsey (Conservative Party Candidate)
Karen Ward (Liberal Democrat Candidate)
Finedon - Wellingborough BC - John Bailey (Conservative) died. He was a very long-serving councillor, serving on the Wellingborough Borough Council since its creation in 1973, and before that on the Wellingborough Urban District from 1967 to 1973. He was the Mayor in 1976-1977 and 2004-2005 and the Leader between 2005 and 2011. He was the Housing Chair for 27 years and was the Audit Chair at the time of his death. He was also a County Councillor between 1970 and 2013 (he was the Mayor for his last year) and a parish councillor since 1983. During his working life, he was a programmer and database administrator.
2015: Con 1250/944, Lab 720, UKIP 698
2011: Con 935/847, Lab 612
2007: Con 909/720, Lab 539
2003: Con 768/652, Lab 527/407
Steve Ayland (Labour Party)
Barbara Bailey (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Allan Shipman (United Kingdom Independence Party)
John Wheaver (Liberal Democrat)
Cherry Willingham - West Lindsay DC - Alexander Bridgwood (Conservative) resigned to join the armed forces. Aged 24, he was first elected councillor in 2015.
2015: Con 1726/1696/1540, Lincolnshire Independents 1561, Lab 1151/997
Wendy Beckett (Labour Party)
Trevor Bridgwood (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Maureen Palmer (The Conservative Party Candidate)
STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED FOR THE BATLEY & SPEN BY ELECTION
ANTI, Corbyn, By Election Protest
BRABIN, Tracy Lynn, Labour Party
BUCKBY, Jack, No to terrorism, Yes to Britain
EDMONDS, Richard Charles, National Front
FURNESS, David, British National Party Local People First
HIRST, Therese, English Democrats - "Putting England First!"
KHAN, Waqas Ali, Independent
KITCHIN, Garry Mervyn, Independent
LOVE, Ankit, One Love Party
MAYHEW, Henry Edmund Burke, Independent
www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/voting-and-elections/pdf/batley-and-spen-201016-persons-nominated.pdf
BRABIN, Tracy Lynn, Labour Party
BUCKBY, Jack, No to terrorism, Yes to Britain
EDMONDS, Richard Charles, National Front
FURNESS, David, British National Party Local People First
HIRST, Therese, English Democrats - "Putting England First!"
KHAN, Waqas Ali, Independent
KITCHIN, Garry Mervyn, Independent
LOVE, Ankit, One Love Party
MAYHEW, Henry Edmund Burke, Independent
www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/voting-and-elections/pdf/batley-and-spen-201016-persons-nominated.pdf
STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED FOR THE WITNEY BY ELECTION
Emilia Arno - One Love Party
Dickie Bird - UKIP
David Bishop - Bus Pass Elvis Party
Robert Courts - Conservative
Duncal Enright - Labour
Mad Hatter - OMRLP
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party
Adam Knight - Independent
Elizabeth Leffman - Lib Dems
Winston Mckenzie - English Dem
Helen Salisbury - NHAP
Larry Sanders - Green Party
Daniel Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent
SOURCE
Dickie Bird - UKIP
David Bishop - Bus Pass Elvis Party
Robert Courts - Conservative
Duncal Enright - Labour
Mad Hatter - OMRLP
Lord Toby Jug - Eccentric Party
Adam Knight - Independent
Elizabeth Leffman - Lib Dems
Winston Mckenzie - English Dem
Helen Salisbury - NHAP
Larry Sanders - Green Party
Daniel Skidmore - Independent
Nicholas Ward - Independent
SOURCE
Labour Leadership result (2016)
Link to full result from September 2015
----------------
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#LabourLeadership RESULT— General Election (@UKGE2020) September 24, 2016
Jeremy Corbyn 313,209 (61.8%) +++WINNER+++
Owen Smith 193,229 (38.2%)
77.6% Turnout 506,438 votes cast#Lab16
#LabourLeadership RESULT #Lab16 (2015)@jeremycorbyn 313,209 - 61.8% (251,417 - 59.4%)— General Election (@UKGE2020) September 24, 2016
votes cast 506,438 (422,664)
#LabourLeadership— General Election (@UKGE2020) September 24, 2016
Members: Corbyn 168,216 (Smith 116,960)
Registred supporters: 84,918 (36,599)
Affiliated supporters: 60,075 (39,670)
Council by election GAINS by the Plaid Cymru since May 2016
Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017
Click on the link for the result
Gains from
Independents
Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm 22nd September 2016
Labour
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach 20th October 2016
Cardiff, Grangetown 3rd November 2016
Click on the link for the result
Gains from
Independents
Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm 22nd September 2016
Labour
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach 20th October 2016
Cardiff, Grangetown 3rd November 2016
A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats
Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017
Collated By MiddleEnglander
There are 8 by-elections during the last week of September together with 33 still identified in October and 5 already in November. There are a further 20 known vacancies - 16 in England and 2 each in both Scotland and Wales - where there is as yet no date for the by-election.
29th September - 8Blackpool UA, Tyldseley - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Blaenau UA, Brynmawr - Independent died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind
Cotswold DC, Stow - Conservative died - 2 candidates: Con, LD
Dacorum BC,Adeyfield West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Derby UA, Allestree - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
North Norfolk DC, Glaven Valley - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Wellingborough BC, Finedon - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
West Lindsey DC, Cherry Willingham - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
6th October - 9
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Basing - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
Bolton MB, Rumworth - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Caerphilly UA, Gilfach - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Plaid Cymru, Green, UKIP
Caerphilly UA, Risca East - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, UKIP
East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Independent East Devon Alliance
Glasgow UA, Garscadden & Scotstounhill - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, UKIP
Haringey LB, St Ann's - Labour resigned 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Hartlepool UA, Headland & Harbour - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Putting Hartlepool First, Patients not Profit, Ind
Highland UA, Cullodon & Ardersier - Labour died - 9 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green 4 x Ind
13th October - 10
Cumbria CC, Windermere - Liberal Democrat resigned: 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Kent CC, Swanley - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Lancaster BC, Westgate - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Morecambe Bay Ind
Lewisham LB, Brockley - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Women's Equality
Lewisham LB, Evelyn - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, People before Profit, Ind
North Kesteven DC, Cliff Villages - Lincolnshire Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincolnshire Ind
Poole UA, Broadstone - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Sevenoaks DC, Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Green
Tandridge DC, Limpsfield - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident
20th October - 11Bracknall UA, Central Sandhurst - Conservative resigned
Braintree DC, Bumpstead - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Braintree DC, Witham North - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Conwy UA, Abergele Pensrn - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, 2 x Ind
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Mary's - Conservative died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind, Beverley
Kettering BC, Rothwell - Labour died
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk - Heacham - Conservative resigned
Medway UA, Strood South - UKIP resigned
Middlesbrough UA, Central - Labour resigned
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Ind
St Albans BC, Clarence - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
27th October - 3Denbighshire UA, Rhyl West - Labour resigned
Rother DC, Collington - Independent resigned
Rother DC, Darwell - Conservative resigned
3rd November - 4
Aberdeenshire UA, Banff & District - SNP died
Aberdeenshire UA, Inverurie & District - Liberal Democrat resigned
Hackney LB, Hoxton West - Labour resigned
Vale of Glamorgan UA, Gibbensdown - Labour resigned
28th November -1
Angus UA, Arbroath East & Lunan - Independent resigned
Not yet called - 20Basingstoke & Deane BC, Tadley South - Conservative died 7th September
Doncaster, Norton & Askern - Labour died 16th August
Eastleigh BC, Fair Oak & Horton Heath - Liberal Democrat died 26th August
Gloucester BC, Longlevens - Conservative died 3rd August
Harborough DC, Misterton - Conservative resigned 1st September
Horsham DC, Southwater - Conservative died around 1st September
Lancashire CC, Burnley Central East - Labour resigned around 14th September
Maldon DC, Maldon West - Conservative died 1st September
Mansfield DC, Warsop Carrs - Labour died 13th September
Medway UA, Rainham Central - Conservative died 8th September
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Madeley - Labour died 18th September
Reigate & Banstead BC, Kingswood with Burgh Heath - Conservative died around 29th August
South Northamptonshire DC, Grange Park - Conservative resigned around 20th September
South Somerset DC, Turn Hill - Conservative resigned around 14th September
Wandsworth LB, Queenstown - Labour died 1st September
West Oxfordshire DC, Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield - Conservative died around 21st September
Dumfries & Galloway, Annandale - Conservative sitting as Labour resigned around 22nd September
Dundee UA, Coldside - SNP resigned around 7th September
Cardiff UA, Grangetown - Labour died 16th September
Powys UA, Llanerchyddol - Independent died 19th September
Collated By MiddleEnglander
There are 8 by-elections during the last week of September together with 33 still identified in October and 5 already in November. There are a further 20 known vacancies - 16 in England and 2 each in both Scotland and Wales - where there is as yet no date for the by-election.
29th September - 8Blackpool UA, Tyldseley - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Blaenau UA, Brynmawr - Independent died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind
Cotswold DC, Stow - Conservative died - 2 candidates: Con, LD
Dacorum BC,Adeyfield West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Derby UA, Allestree - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
North Norfolk DC, Glaven Valley - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Wellingborough BC, Finedon - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
West Lindsey DC, Cherry Willingham - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
6th October - 9
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Basing - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
Bolton MB, Rumworth - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Caerphilly UA, Gilfach - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Plaid Cymru, Green, UKIP
Caerphilly UA, Risca East - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, UKIP
East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Independent East Devon Alliance
Glasgow UA, Garscadden & Scotstounhill - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, UKIP
Haringey LB, St Ann's - Labour resigned 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Hartlepool UA, Headland & Harbour - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Putting Hartlepool First, Patients not Profit, Ind
Highland UA, Cullodon & Ardersier - Labour died - 9 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green 4 x Ind
13th October - 10
Cumbria CC, Windermere - Liberal Democrat resigned: 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Kent CC, Swanley - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Lancaster BC, Westgate - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Morecambe Bay Ind
Lewisham LB, Brockley - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Women's Equality
Lewisham LB, Evelyn - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, People before Profit, Ind
North Kesteven DC, Cliff Villages - Lincolnshire Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincolnshire Ind
Poole UA, Broadstone - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Sevenoaks DC, Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Green
Tandridge DC, Limpsfield - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident
20th October - 11Bracknall UA, Central Sandhurst - Conservative resigned
Braintree DC, Bumpstead - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Braintree DC, Witham North - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Conwy UA, Abergele Pensrn - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, 2 x Ind
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Mary's - Conservative died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind, Beverley
Kettering BC, Rothwell - Labour died
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk - Heacham - Conservative resigned
Medway UA, Strood South - UKIP resigned
Middlesbrough UA, Central - Labour resigned
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Ind
St Albans BC, Clarence - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
27th October - 3Denbighshire UA, Rhyl West - Labour resigned
Rother DC, Collington - Independent resigned
Rother DC, Darwell - Conservative resigned
3rd November - 4
Aberdeenshire UA, Banff & District - SNP died
Aberdeenshire UA, Inverurie & District - Liberal Democrat resigned
Hackney LB, Hoxton West - Labour resigned
Vale of Glamorgan UA, Gibbensdown - Labour resigned
28th November -1
Angus UA, Arbroath East & Lunan - Independent resigned
Not yet called - 20Basingstoke & Deane BC, Tadley South - Conservative died 7th September
Doncaster, Norton & Askern - Labour died 16th August
Eastleigh BC, Fair Oak & Horton Heath - Liberal Democrat died 26th August
Gloucester BC, Longlevens - Conservative died 3rd August
Harborough DC, Misterton - Conservative resigned 1st September
Horsham DC, Southwater - Conservative died around 1st September
Lancashire CC, Burnley Central East - Labour resigned around 14th September
Maldon DC, Maldon West - Conservative died 1st September
Mansfield DC, Warsop Carrs - Labour died 13th September
Medway UA, Rainham Central - Conservative died 8th September
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Madeley - Labour died 18th September
Reigate & Banstead BC, Kingswood with Burgh Heath - Conservative died around 29th August
South Northamptonshire DC, Grange Park - Conservative resigned around 20th September
South Somerset DC, Turn Hill - Conservative resigned around 14th September
Wandsworth LB, Queenstown - Labour died 1st September
West Oxfordshire DC, Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield - Conservative died around 21st September
Dumfries & Galloway, Annandale - Conservative sitting as Labour resigned around 22nd September
Dundee UA, Coldside - SNP resigned around 7th September
Cardiff UA, Grangetown - Labour died 16th September
Powys UA, Llanerchyddol - Independent died 19th September
The September Welsh Political Barometer Poll
Theresa May has helped lift support for the Conservative party in Wales to its highest level for six years. This is the stand-out finding from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since the change of Prime Minister.
As usual, our poll asked people how they would vote both in a general election for the House of Commons and also in an election for the National Assembly. First, Westminster. Here are the figures from our new poll (with changes from the last Barometer poll, conducted in early July, indicated in brackets):
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservative 29% (+6)
Plaid Cymru 13% (-3)
UKIP 14% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)
Conservative 29% (+6)
Plaid Cymru 13% (-3)
UKIP 14% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)
For the second successive time, our Barometer poll sees a big change in the support level of one of the main parties. Last time around it was Labour seeing a five-point fall – from which they have only recovered a single point in our new poll. Now we see a big boost for the Conservatives, under their new UK leader. The last time that the Welsh Tories scored this highly in a Welsh poll for Westminster was October 2010.
Meanwhile, after getting their best-ever Westminster figure from YouGov in July, Plaid Cymru unsurprisingly slip back three points; UKIP decline a couple of points, on top of an identical decline in our previous poll.
If we take the changes to party support since the May 2015 general election implied by this poll, and apply them uniformly across Wales on the current seat boundaries, we get the following projected result (with all seats won by a party at last year’s general election remaining in their hands unless stated otherwise):
Labour: 24 seats (losing Ynys Môn)
Conservative: 11 seats (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
Conservative: 11 seats (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
What about the new electoral map for Wales proposed by the Boundary Commission just a couple of weeks ago? Under those boundaries – and using the ‘notional’ 2015 results for those boundaries produced by Anthony Wells of YouGov – this poll projects the following outcome:
Labour: 15 seats
Conservative: 10 seats
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat
Conservative: 10 seats
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat
These projected results would represent a net loss for Labour of three seats from the 18 that Wells projects them, on the new boundaries, to have won in 2015. The Cardiff North, Flint & Rhuddlan, and Wrexham Maelor seats, all projected by Wells to have been narrowly won by Labour on the new boundaries, would on the figures in our new poll now be won narrowly by the Conservatives. Labour would still be projected to win a majority of Welsh seats but only barely so – 15 out of 29.
What about for the National Assembly? I’ll start as per usual with the constituency vote. Here are the findings from our poll (with changes from the last Barometer poll once again indicated in brackets):
Labour 34% (+2)
Conservative 24% (+5)
Plaid Cymru 20% (-3)
UKIP 13% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Others 3% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 20% (-3)
UKIP 13% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Others 3% (no change)
We continue to see the Labour party some way in the lead. But once again, the big change in this poll is a large leap in support for the Welsh Conservatives. And as with Westminster, we see support for both Plaid Cymru and UKIP ebbing since our July poll.
If the changes from May’s Assembly election indicated by this poll are applied uniformly across Wales, then only two constituency seats are projected to change hands, both gained by the Conservatives from Labour: Vale of Glamorgan and Vale of Clwyd.
The findings for the Assembly regional vote show a broadly similar picture:
Labour 29% (no change)
Conservative 22% (+4)
Plaid Cymru 21% (-3)
UKIP 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (no change)
Others 10% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 21% (-3)
UKIP 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (no change)
Others 10% (no change)
Applying once more the assumption of uniform national swing, and also taking into account the projected constituency results just mentioned, our poll provides the following projected outcome for the regional list seats:
North Wales: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
Mid & West Wales: 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
South Wales Central: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
Mid & West Wales: 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
South Wales Central: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
This, in turn, gives us the following overall projected outcome:
Labour 26 seats (25 constituency, 1 regional)
Conservative 14 seats (8 constituency, 6 regional)
Conservative 14 seats (8 constituency, 6 regional)
Plaid Cymru 12 seats (6 constituency, 6 regional)
UKIP 7 seats (7 regional)
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)
UKIP 7 seats (7 regional)
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)
Overall, this new poll shows a significant lift in the fortunes of the Conservative party. This confirms that the broad picture indicated in recent Britain-wide polls applies in full to Wales as well. It is not at all unusual for new Prime Ministers, or leaders of major parties to enjoy something of a honeymoon period. In our September Welsh Political Barometer Poll last year, the recent leadership victory of Jeremy Corbyn appeared to give his party an immediate boost in the polls. The ‘Corbyn Bounce’ was very short-lived: by the time of the next poll, in December, it had already disappeared. The fact that our new poll has been conducted some weeks after Theresa May’s accession to 10 Downing Street suggests that the boost received by the Conservative party could be a little more enduring. But as she will doubtless be aware, and supporters of her party should bear in mind, all Prime Ministerial honeymoon periods come to an end eventually.
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1001 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 18-21 September 2016.
Postscript: And, for the cognoscenti/confirmed saddos, here are the Ratio Swing seat projections from the poll.
For Westminster, Ratio Swing projects the exact same seat outcomes as UNS. Ynys Môn is the only seat projected to change hands on the existing boundaries, while the Conservatives would narrowly make some gains on the notional new boundaries.
For the National Assembly, Ratio Swing also projects the same constituency results, with the Conservatives gaining Vale of Glamorgan and Vale of Clwyd.
Taking these constituency ‘results’ into account, Ratio Swing then projects the following outcome for the regional list seats.
North Wales: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
Mid & West Wales: 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
South Wales Central: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
Mid & West Wales: 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
South Wales Central: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid
In short, as with the constituencies, these are exactly the same regional results as projected by uniform swing! (That was really worth doing, wasn’t it…)
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