UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, March 2016.

SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on March 8th 2016 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the latest opinion polls. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with an increased majority.

Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.

The percentages input for this forecast were based on the latest opinion polls.

The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 52% Lab 21%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 48%, Lab 19%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 6%UKIP 3%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

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See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2011   Regions map and comparison with 2011   Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency   

Party Total Seats Change SNP 74 +6 Labour 26 -12 Conservative 19 +4 Liberal Democrat 6 +1 Green 4 +2 Ind 0 -1 Scottish National Party - Majority 19 Party AMS Seats Change Labour 26 +4 Conservative 15 +3 Green 4 +2 SNP 7 -9 Liberal Democrat 4 +1 Independent 0 -1 AM Seats - Lab Gain 4, Con 3, SNP Lose 9.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.