General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 50

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 04 Jul 2016 to 26 Jul 2016, sampling 7,952 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
Con/Nat coalition
Con choice of Lib/Nat
Nat choice of Con/Lab
Lab/Nat coalition
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 31 July 2016

There has been a significant increase in Conservative support during July, 
especially after the appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister. But this 
has come much more at the expense of UKIP than the Labour party. Overall UKIP 
is down 4pc and Labour has only lost 1pc, according to the pollsters 

UKIP appears to have suffered from having its fox shot, as its supporters have 
drifted away. But the noisy Labour leadership campaign has not done the party 
much harm (so far). 

The most recent polls from the five pollsters who published polls in July are: 

Survation (CRC) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 9, UKIP 12, Green 4 (estd) 
Ipsos-MORI has Con 36, Lab 35, Lib 11, UKIP 8, Green 4 
Opinium (Observer) has Con 37, Lab 31, Lib 6, UKIP 15, Green 4 
ICM has Con 43, Lab 27, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 4 
YouGov (Times) has Con 40, Lab 28, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 4 

The averages: Con 40 (+5), Lab 29 (-1), Lib 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-4), Grn 4 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 50 
seats, winning 350 seats (+27 seats since 3 July). 

Electoral Calculus