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Just not enough voters for UKIP to win Oldham West Royton by election

Last night I asked a simple question
And UKIP followers are true believers. Same as you could ask me, will Southampton win the Premiership? I will in my head know it is near impossible but in my heart would hope they do. But the fact for UKIPers is you have an impossible job.
Looking back over UKIPs best night so far which was the 2014 European elections. Now it doesn't break down by parliamentary constituencies but I would say Oldham council would give a good indication of the area and even on their best night. UKIP were still 9% behind Labour. So I just can't see how they can make up the 34.2% they would need to do which is what Labour have as a lead from the General Election. On a bad day Labour get 38% of the vote on a great day for UKIP they manage 29% where would they squeeze the rest from?
Oldham West & Royton is not even on the list of 106 seats UKIP would win if they could achieve a 17.1% swing. But did find this odd fact. This seat is where both Labour & UKIP got their 63rd highest share of the vote in the General Election
Conclusion...

 There is just not enough folks to be UKIP voters. at best they can get the 29% But this should be in the bag for Labour with 50% plus share of the vote I am predicting with even a half oiled election machine in place for Labour.