Now the opinion poll has been much berated of late, and it is said that the only poll which matters is the ballot box poll, and with over 10,000 people voting yesterday which is a good sample size by any ones standards. I thought I would set out the figures below.

The figures show the difference in percentages between when the by election was held on the 9th July and when they were last held.

I have concentrated on the 6 in England, I am aware that when the last elections were held it would be in various years, or against the back drop of a all out council election so turnouts would vary.

But all in all it is the same area, with roughly the same people who all had the same chance to vote, and it is the vote share not the numbers cast we will concentrate on.

links to

Council by election results 9th July 2015

Candidates and past election results

Last election held cumulative

Labour 8,322 - 47.5%
Conservative 4,238 - 24.2%
UKIP 3,308 - 18.9%
Greens 1,026 - 5.8%
Lib Dems 524 - 3%
Indepent 96 - 0.6%

Votes cast on 9th July cumulative

Labour 5,221 - 51.9%
Conservative 2,881 - 28.7%
UKIP 931 - 9.2%
Greens 534 - 5.3%
Lib Dems 317 - 3.1%
Independent 184 - 1.8%


Conservatives +4.5%
Labour +4.4%
Independent +1.2%
Lib Dems +0.1%
Greens -0.5%
UKIP -9.7%