There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 3 December 2016.
The results of the November polls were a little more diverse than last month. The measured Conservative lead over Labour varied from 9pc (Ipsos-MORI) to 16pc (ICM). This gives an average lead of around 15pc, which is a down on last month, though still fairly comfortable for the Conservatives.
Most polling was conducted before the UKIP leadership election, and the Richmond Park by-election.
|Party||2015 Votes||2015 Seats||Pred Votes||Pred Seats|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2016 to 29 Nov 2016, sampling 6,651 people.
The average support levels are (with change from previous month): Con 43 (-1), Lab 28 (+2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (+1), Grn 4 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (-16 seats since 8 November).
Probability of possible outcomes
|Con choice of Lib/Nat|
|Nat choice of Con/Lab|
|No overall control|
|Lab choice of Lib/Nat|
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)