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Latest General Election prediction from Electoral Calculus

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 3 December 2016.

The results of the November polls were a little more diverse than last month. The measured Conservative lead over Labour varied from 9pc (Ipsos-MORI) to 16pc (ICM). This gives an average lead of around 15pc, which is a down on last month, though still fairly comfortable for the Conservatives.

Most polling was conducted before the UKIP leadership election, and the Richmond Park by-election.

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33142.6%374
LAB31.2%23227.7%189
LIB8.1%87.9%7
UKIP12.9%111.7%1
Green3.8%13.5%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%00.9%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2016 to 29 Nov 2016, sampling 6,651 people.

The average support levels are (with change from previous month): Con 43 (-1), Lab 28 (+2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (+1), Grn 4 (nc).

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (-16 seats since 8 November).


Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
74%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Labour majority
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
No overall control
1%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
Con/Lib coalition
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)