The results of the November polls were a little more diverse than last month. The measured Conservative lead over Labour varied from 9pc (Ipsos-MORI) to 16pc (ICM). This gives an average lead of around 15pc, which is a down on last month, though still fairly comfortable for the Conservatives.
Most polling was conducted before the UKIP leadership election, and the Richmond Park by-election.
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 42.6% | 374 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 27.7% | 189 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 7.9% | 7 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 11.7% | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 3.5% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9% | 0 |
| N.Ire | | 18 | | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2016 to 29 Nov 2016, sampling 6,651 people.
The average support levels are (with change from previous month): Con 43 (-1), Lab 28 (+2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (+1), Grn 4 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (-16 seats since 8 November).
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
 | 74% |
|
| Con/Nat coalition |
| 6% |
|
| Labour majority |
| 6% |
|
| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
| 5% |
|
| Lab/Nat coalition |
| 3% |
|
| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
| 3% |
|
| No overall control |
| 1% |
|
| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
| 1% |
|
| Con/Lib coalition |
| 1% |
|
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
