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Real votes not opinion polls 1st October council elections

Yesterday there were 8 council by elections of which 7 were in Scotland and 6 of them had a straight fight between The SNP and Labour, with Conservative and Green candidates and some LibDems

19,782 votes were cast and below is the tables for 2 ways of looking at the results.

The first compares directly with when the last elections were held for those wards in 2012. Just before the surge of the SNP. and actually shows Labour down by 5.2% from those elections. 

The SNP in contrast are on 48.1% which is 13.5% higher than 2012 and is around the same high figures of the General Election.

Below is a list of 6 of the 7 Scottish elections with 2012 top 1st preference vote and the 1st Oct 2015 vote will be put in brackets

COUNCIL ELECTIONSNP (1ST OCT 2015)LABOUR (1/10/15)CONSERVATIVES
(1/10/15)
GREENS
(1/10/15)
LIBDEMS
(1/10/15)
OTHERS
(1/10/15)
George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen672 (961)456 (490)178 (195)194 (136)NC (96)251 (NC)
Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen1233 (1168)1247(605)531 (672)245 (170)245 (238)82 (NC)
Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire1252 (1797)1423 (860)857 (865)NC (88)NC(NC)339 (NC)
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife941 (2235)1424 (1207)155 (234)NC (113)83 (NC)462 (NC)
Stirling East - Stirling1278 (1311)862 (1094)302 (343)163 (152)403 (NC)NC (NC)
Linlithgow - West Lothian1827 (2049)1292 (1088)2112 (973)NC (282)NC (130)305 (230)
TOTALS 20,814 (19782)7203 = 34.6% (9521 = 48.1%)6704 = 32.2%  (5344 = 27%)4135 = 19.9% (3282 = 16.6%)602 = 2.9% (941 = 4.8%)731 = 3.5% (464 = 2.3%)1439 = 6.9% (230 = 1.2%)

NC = No Candidate


Below is the General Election percentages for the constituencies the wards are in (Octobers 1st Council by election share)

Below is the average vote share compared to the average vote share from the General Election. Now I know it is not a completely fair comparison as the whole constituency is counted for the GE and only the ward for 2015, but this is just for comparison as we only have one election to compare with by ward for 2015.

But if anything for the variances for not having LibDems in every ward which they would have in every constituency. It seems little has changed. SNP very high Labour if anything slightly down. The Conservatives actually slightly higher due to a couple of good council results where they actually pushed labour into 3rd place in 2 wards.

 #GE2015 PercentagesSNP (1ST OCT 2015)LABOUR (1/10/15)CONSERVATIVES
(1/10/15)
GREENS
(1/10/15)
LIBDEMS
(1/10/15)
OTHERS
(1/10/15)
Aberdeen North56.4% (51.2%)26.9% (26.1%)12.1% (10.4%)NC (7.2%)4.7% (5.1%)0.9% (NC)
As above (2nd council election)(40.9%)(21.2%)(23.6%)(8.3%)(6%) (NC)
Kilmarnock & Loudoun55.7% (49.8%)30.4% (23.8%)12.5% (24%)NC (2.4%)1.5% (NC)NC (NC)
Glenrothes59.8% (59%)30.6% (31.9%)7.7% (6.2%)NC (3%)1.9% (NC)
Stirling45.6% (45.2%)25.5% (37.7%)23.1% (11.8%)3.1% (5.2%)2.7% (NC)
Linlithgow & East Falkirk52% (43.1%)31% (22.9%)12% (20.5%) NC (5.9%)2% (2.8%)2.9% (4.8%)
Average53.9% (48.2%)28.9% (27.2%)13.5% (16.1%)(5.3%)2.6% (2.3%)