On the 1st October we will have 8 council by elections 7 in Scotland 1 in England.and as everyone mulls over opinion polls to see how Jeremy Corbyn is doing as the new leader of the Labour party and how the SNP, Conservatives, Greens & LibDems are doing in comparison. This Thursday gives us a chance to dissect some real voting patterns as real votes are cast not just assumptions picked up by pollsters
Now UKIP must be disappointed as the 7 Scottish elections does not have one UKIP candidate put forward. Any reason as to why?
Now past election results as comparisons. This is difficult due to the fact that most of the council elections only have results from 2012 bar one, and the SNP surge really took off in 2013 culminating in the General Election result. I will be compiling the general election result for each constituency. But this is only for a percentage guidance, as figures by ward are not published.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP can keep the surge going as they have since May. Can Labour win back the voters lost to the SNP? Can the Conservatives in one election who came first in 2012 get a technical gain from the SNP?
The LibDem fightback! Just where is it? Due to the fact that the Green Party have managed to field candidates in each of the Council elections we are looking at and the LibDems have only managed 3.
So how can we compare?
Below is a list of 6 of the 7 Scottish elections with 2012 top 1st preference vote and the 1st Oct 2015 vote will be put in brackets
| COUNCIL ELECTION | SNP (1ST OCT 2015) | LABOUR (1/10/15) | CONSERVATIVES (1/10/15) | GREENS (1/10/15) | LIBDEMS (1/10/15) | OTHERS (1/10/15) |
| George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen | 672 () | 456 () | 178 () | 194 () | NC () | 251 (NC) |
| Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen | 1233 () | 1247() | 531 () | 245 () | 245 () | 82 (NC) |
| Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire | 1252 () | 1423 () | 857 () | NC () | NC(NC) | 339 (NC) |
| Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife | 941 () | 1424 () | 155 () | NC () | 83 (NC) | 462 (NC) |
| Stirling East - Stirling | 1278 () | 862 () | 302 () | 163 () | 403 (NC) | NC (NC) |
| Linlithgow - West Lothian | 1827 () | 1292 | 2112 () | NC () | NC () | 305 () |
| TOTALS 20,814 () | 7203 = 34.6% () | 6704 = 32.2% () | 4135 = 19.9% () | 602 = 2.9% () | 731 = 3.5% () | 1439 = 6.9% () |
NC = No Candidate
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife - Is the only council election with a comparison to 2015
Mar 2015 by: SNP 2539, Lab 1643, Con 202, UKIP 146, LD 61
Compared to 2012: SNP 941/910/349, Lab 1424/708, Ind 192/147, Pensioners 271, Con 155, LD 83
Gordon Brown must have seen a major defeat coming.
Below is the General Election percentages for the constituencies the wards are in.
| #GE2015 Percentages | SNP (1ST OCT 2015) | LABOUR (1/10/15) | CONSERVATIVES (1/10/15) | GREENS (1/10/15) | LIBDEMS (1/10/15) | OTHERS (1/10/15) |
| Aberdeen North | 56.4% | 26.9% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 0.9% | |
| As above | ||||||
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun | 55.7% | 30.4% | 12.5% | 1.5% | ||
| Glenrothes | 59.8% | 30.6% | 7.7% | 1.9% | ||
| Stirling | 45.6% | 25.5% | 23.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | |
| Linlithgow & East Falkirk | 52% | 31% | 12% | 2% | 2.9% | |
| Average | 53.9% | 28.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% |
So quite a staggering average the SNP are defending of over 50%
| Election Date | Authority | Ward | Result | Labour to SNP swing since 2012 | Labour to SNP swing since 2007 |
| 9th July | North Lanarkshire | Thorniewood | SNP hold | 25.3% | 24.4% |
| 30th July | Aberdeen | Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill | SNP hold | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| 30th July | Aberdeen | Kincorth / Nigg / Cove | SNP hold | 22.8% | 21.2% |
| 6th August | Glasgow | Anderston / City | SNP hold | 20.1% | 15.8% |
| 6th August | Glasgow | Calton | SNP hold | 24.9% | 26.8% |
| 6th August | Glasgow | Craigton | SNP hold | 21.4% | 22.1% |
| 6th August | Glasgow | Langside | SNP gain from Green | 13.1% | 17.0% |
| 6th August | South Lanarkshire | Hamilton South | SNP hold | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| 13th August | Falkirk | Denny & Bankock | SNP hold | 23.0% | 24.4% |
| 13th August | North Lanarkshire | Wishaw | SNP hold | 20.8% | 23.3% |
| 18th August | Orkney | West Mainland | Orkney Manifesto win | n / a | n / a |
| 10th September | Edinburgh | Leith Walk - 1st seat | SNP hold | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Leith Walk - 2nd seat | Labour gain from Green | ||||
| 10th September | Midlothian | Midlothian West | SNP hold | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| 17th September | South Ayrshire | Ayr East | SNP hold | 6.9% | 12.4% |
| 1st October | Aberdeen | George Street / Harbour | |||
| 1st October | Aberdeen | Midstocket / Rosemount | |||
| 1st October | East Ayrshire | Irvine Valley | |||
| 1st October | Fife | Glenrothes West & Kinglassie | |||
| 1st October | Moray | Heldon & Laich | |||
| 1st October | Stirling | Stirling East | |||
| 1st October | West Lothian | Linlithgow | |||
| 7th October | Western Isles | West Side & Ness | n / a | n / a | |
| 8th October | Highland | Aird & Loch Ness | |||
| Possible | Fife | Rosyth |
Where will the trend go for the SNP?
The one council by election in England is also of interest
Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC - Ann Bonner (Conservative), a former mayor of Banbury, died.
2012-2016 term (all outs due to new boundaries)
2015: Lab 1533, Con 1460, UKIP 623, Grn 330, LD 230
2014: Lab 950, Con 574, UKIP 507, Grn 184, LD 103
2012: Con 821, Lab 713, Grn 186, LD 104
2011: Lab 969, Con 954, Grn 230, LD 214
2010: Con 1694, Lab 1176, LD 1080
2008: Con 1075, Lab 495, LD 163
2007: Con 1015, Lab 631
2006: Con 862, Lab 520, LD 334
2004: Con 1099, Lab 827
2003: Con 704, Lab 684
2002: Lab 810/748/721, Con 619/564/522
A very close Labour / Conservative tussle over the years. Who will win on Thursday?
2012-2016 term (all outs due to new boundaries)
2015: Lab 1533, Con 1460, UKIP 623, Grn 330, LD 230
2014: Lab 950, Con 574, UKIP 507, Grn 184, LD 103
2012: Con 821, Lab 713, Grn 186, LD 104
2011: Lab 969, Con 954, Grn 230, LD 214
2010: Con 1694, Lab 1176, LD 1080
2008: Con 1075, Lab 495, LD 163
2007: Con 1015, Lab 631
2006: Con 862, Lab 520, LD 334
2004: Con 1099, Lab 827
2003: Con 704, Lab 684
2002: Lab 810/748/721, Con 619/564/522
A very close Labour / Conservative tussle over the years. Who will win on Thursday?
