UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 3

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 3 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP.

This forecast was created on March 28th 2016. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include theScottish Parliament Forecast (March 2016).
The overall percentages used for this forecast were primarily based on opinion polls. The percentages used for the Constituency vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 35% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 20%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%. The percentages used for the AMS Regional Member vote were: AMS Vote: Lab 32% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 21%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies exceeds 5% in the AMS regional vote, it will start to win AMS seats rapidly - something that is well illustrated by this forecast.
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, thecurrent opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
PartyOverall SeatsChange
Plaid Cymru11-
Liberal Democrat2-3
Overall - Labour Short By 3
Plaid Cymru5-1
Liberal Democrat0-4
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 7, Lib Dem lose 4
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 1st Place)Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 2nd Place)
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead)Forecast for Wales (Votes and Seats Piecharts)
Forecast for Wales (Regions)Forecast for Wales (Regions, 2nd Place)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.2 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

Maybe Ian Lavery should have asked Zelo Street to respond for him.

86% of our followers believed Hopi Sen over Ian Lavery and having just read Zelo Streets reply, Maybe Ian should have got them to do the response and so we asked our followers if they agreed
But this find didn't help where Ian Lavery effectively kicked to the long grass public viewing of expense deals for politicians.

The accusation made to & The response from Ian Lavery MP

On the 2 links you have first the accusation collated by Hopi Sen and then below the later response from Ian Lavery MP. So who do you believe?


How John Major lost his majority between 1992-97

Whilst David Cameron has a smaller majority in this parliament. this shows how John Major lost his majority between 1992-97


The Conservatives started the 1992-1997 Parliament with a majority over all other parties of 21. By 16 January 1997, with the death of Iain Mills, this majority had become a minority. Below we chart the loss of the Government's majority.By-elections and defections
Nine Conservative MPs have died in the 1992-1997 Parliament. By-elections have been held in eight of these seats and all of them have been lost to other parties. There have been three defections.
Judith Chaplin died on 19 February 1993. The Lib Dems' David Rendel won the by-election on 6 May 1993. Majority reduced to 19.
Robert Adley died on 13 May 1993. The Lib Dems' Diana Maddock won the by-election on 29 July 1993. Majority reduced to 17.
Stephen Milligan died on 7 February 1994. The Lib Dems' David Chidgey won the on by-election 9 June 1994. Majority reduced to 15.
Dudley West
Dr John Blackburn died on 12 October 1994. Labour's Ian Pearson won the by-election on 15 December 1994. Majority reduced to 13.
Perth & Kinross
Sir Nicholas Fairbairn died on 19 February 1995. SNP candidate Roseanna Cunningham won the by-election on 25 May 1995. Majority reduced to 11.
Littleborough & Saddleworth
Geoffrey Dickens died on 17 May 1995. Lib Dem candidate Chris Davies won the by-election on 27 July 1995. Majority reduced to 9.
Alan Howarth defects to Labour on 7 October 1995. Majority reduced to 7.
Devon West & Torridge
Emma Nicholson defects to the Lib Dems. Majority reduced to 5.
Staffordshire South East
David Lightbown died on 12 December 1995. Labour candidate Brian Jenkins won the by-election on 16 April 1996. Majority reduced to 3.
Bolton North East
Peter Thurnham defects to the Lib Dems. Majority reduced to 1.
Wirral South
Barry Porter died on 3 November 1996. Labour's Ben Chapman won the seat on 27 February 1997. The government was now in a minority with 322 seats compared to 323 for the combined opposition parties.
Iain Mills found dead on 16 January 1997. By-election pending. Minority of one, Con 322-Others 323.
Note: On 20 January 1997, Labour MP Martin Redmond died, ending that period of minority government and putting the Conservatives back on the same number of MPs as all other parties put together - 322:322.


At dissolution, the state of the parties was:

Conservatives 321
Labour 272
Liberal Democrats 26
Ulster Unionists 9
Plaid Cymru 4
Scottish National Party 4
Social Democratic and Labour Party 4
Ulster Democratic Unionist Party 3
Referendum Party 1
United Kingdom Unionist Party 1

The Speaker and deputies 4
Vacant seats 2

The Conservatives were therefore in a minority of 3.

collated the final figures

David Boothroyd


A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated by MiddleEnglander

There are 5 by-elections in the last week of March and 6 called during April.  
It is considered unlikely that there will be any more ahead of the main elections on 5th May.

31st March - 5Caerphilly UA, Moriah - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, 2 x Ind
Craven DC, Embsay-with-Eastby - Conservative died - 2 candidates:  Con, Ind
Dundee UA, Maryfield - SNP resigned - 8 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, TUSAC, Ind
Essex CC, Clacton East - Tendring First disqualified - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Holland-on-Sea Residents
Richmondshire DC, Richmond Central - Liberal Democrat died - 4 candidates: Con, LD, Green, Richmondshire Independent

7th April - 3Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, UKIP
East Riding of Yorkshire, Pocklington Provincial - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn - Independent died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP

14th April - 3
Cornwall UA, Menhendiot - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind
Taunton Deane DC, Halcon - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green


There are currently 60 known council vacancies where the by-elections may possibly / certainly be held on 5th May. 

Conservative held seats - 29
Barrow-in-Furness BC, Dalton South - death
* Castle Point, St George's - death
Denbighshire UA, Diserth - death
* Dudley MB, Pedmore & Stourbridge East - resignation
East Hants DC, Clanfield & Finchdean - resignation
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, East Wolds & Coastal - death
Forest Heath DC, Brandon West - resignation followed by death
Guildford BC, Stoke - resignation
Hambleton DC, Northallerton South - death
Hampshire CC, Fareham Town - resignation
Hampshire CC, Headley - resignation
* Ipswich BC, Castle Hills - resignation
Kensington & Chelsea - 2 seats both resignations
Lancaster BC, Carnforth & Millhead - death
Melton BC, Egerton - resignation
Newark & Sherwood DC, Balderton South - death
North Yorkshire CC, Northallerton - death
Redbridge LB, Roding - resignation
Rutland UA, Greetham - death
St Edmundsbury BC, Haverhill North - death
* Southampton UA, Harefield - resignation
South Kesteven DC, Deeping St James - resignation
Stafford CC, Uttoxeter Town - death
Suffolk CC, Bixley - resignation
Suffolk CC, Haverhill Cangle - death
* Three Rivers, Carpenders Park - resignation
Torbay UA, Tormohun - resignation
Waveney DC, Wrentham - resignation

Labour held seats - 23
Brent LB, Kilburn - death
Croydon LB, West Thornton - impending resignation 
Doncaster MB, Kirk Sandall & Edenthorpe - death
East Sussex CC, St Helens & Silverhill - death
Glasgow UA / Anderton / City - resignation
Greenwich LB, Glyndon - resignation
* Hastings BC, Old Hastings - death
Hackney LB, Hackney Downs - resignation
Hackney LB, Stoke Newington - resignation
* Knowsley MB, St Bartholomews - death
* Knowsley MB, Shevington - death
Lancaster BC, John O'Gaunt - death
Lancashire CC, Lancaster East - death
Merton LB, Figge's March - resignation
* Nuneaton & Bedworth - resignation
* Southampton UA, Woolston - resignation
Southwark LB, College - resignation
Southwark LB, Newington - resignation
Swansea UA, Mynyddbach - resignation
* Three Rivers DC, South Oxhey - death
Westminster LB, Church Street - resignation
* Wokingham UA, Bulmershe & Whitegates - resignation 
* Wirral MB, Liscard - resignation

Liberal Democrat held seats - 2Faeham BC, Fareham East - resignation
Gloucester CC, Churchdown - death

UKIP held seats -2Havering LB, Heaton - resignation - sitting as Independent
Surrey CC, Staines South & Ashford West - resignation

Independent held seats - 3
Cambridgeshire CC, St Neots Eaton Socon & Eynesbury - death
* Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eynesbury - death
* Mole Valley DC, Ashstead Common - resignation followed by death

SNP held seats - 1
Argyll & Bute UA, Oban North & Lorn - resignation - originally elected as Independent

* potential "double" election with a by-election held at the same time as the annual election

Council by election results 24th March

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated by MiddleEnglander

Allerdale, Dalton - Independent gain from Conservative
- 24th March

Party  2016 votes     2016 share     since 2015     since 2011     2007 result   
Independent         133       31.7%from nowherefrom nowhere
Labour         118       28.2%from nowhere       +5.0%
Conservative           93       22.2%     -26.1%from nowhere  unopposed
UKIP           53       12.6%       -1.8%from nowhere
Green           22         5.3%     -10.6%       -8.2%
Liberal Democrat      -21.4%
Previous Independent *      -63.3%
Total votes         419        40%        58%

* Conservative candidate in 2007

Swing not meaningful

Council now 28 Labour, 16 Conservative, 4 Independent, 4 Non Aligned, 3 UKIP, 1 Vacant

Allerdale, Moss Bay - Labour hold
- 24th March

Party  2016 votes     2016 share     2015 result   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"
Labour         411       64.9%3 unopposed         +3.8%            +4.8%
UKIP         189       29.9%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Conservative            33         5.2%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent        -38.9%            -39.9%
Total votes         633          62%              64%

Swing not meaningful

Council now 28 Labour, 16 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Non Aligned, 3 UKIP

Kettering, St Peter's - Conservative hold
-24th March

Party  2016 votes     2016 share   since 2015 "top"since 2015 "average"since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"
Conservative         468       51.0%       +10.8%           +12.7%         -6.2%            -5.7%
Labour         180       19.6%         -5.5%             -6.3%         -8.8%            -8.8%
UKIP         149       16.2%         -2.2%             -2.8%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Green           93       10.1%         -6.2%             -6.8%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Liberal Democrat           28         3.1%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
English Democrat         -14.4%          -14.8%
Total votes         918         30%             31%          57%             59%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~8% / 9½% since 2015 and ~1½% since 2011

Council now 27 Conservative, 8 Labour, 1 Independent