Post Brexit Scottish Attitudes Poll - Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum?
On behalf of Daily Record & Daily Mirror, Survation conducted polling by telephone Saturday looking at attitudes to a potential second Scottish Independence Referendum.Full data tables can be viewed here:
Sample Size - 1002 Scottish Adults aged 16+.
Fieldwork Date - June 25th
Method - Telephone (named person stratified sample landline & mobile phone combination contact points).
Weighting Targets - Data were weighted by sex, age, 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum vote (see note 1), 2016 Holyrood Constituency vote, likelihood to vote, and 8 category Scottish region.
EU Referendum Voting By Party
Although declared future likelihood to voting & declared turnout (2) is sytematically exaggerated in opinion polls, the declared Leave/Remain percentages by party among Scots in the EU Referendum were as follows:
Declared EU Referendum Splits Based on Holyrood 2016 Past Vote
| |||||
CON
|
LAB
|
LD
|
SNP
|
DNV
| |
Voted
Leave
|
27%
|
17%
|
16%
|
29%
|
32%
|
Voted Remain
|
73%
|
83%
|
84%
|
71%
|
68%
|
Declared EU Referendum Splits By Age
16-34 Voted Leave 23% Voted Remain 77%
35-54 Voted Leave 24% Voted Remain 76%
55+ Voted Leave 33% Voted Remain 67%
Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum Post Brexit?
Following the result of the UK's referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK voted to leave, do you think?
Scotland should hold a second independence referendum - 41.9%
Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum - 44.7%
Don't know - 13.4%
=> Public support for a second referendum is split, with a small majority (52/48) of Scots currently against holding a second referendum:
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question Should Scotland be an Independent country?, how would you vote?
Yes - 47.0%
No - 41.2%
Undecided - 10.0%
Refused/WNV - 2%
Base: Likely to Vote with undecided / refused removed
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an Independent country?”, how would you vote?
Yes - 54%
No - 46%
Notes
- Scottish Independence past vote shows evidence of false recall - which is backed up by near perfect balance of recall for Holyrood 2016 vote so this sample does appear to be politically balanced
- Turnout was lower than expected in the UK’s independence referendum in Scotland on a relative basis vs more “leave” parts of the country. If higher turnout could be considered to have favoured remain this may explain this sample’s lower declared remain % vs actual 62/38 for Scotland as a whole. Turnout for a second Scotland Independence Referendum would be significantly higher based on the 2014 actual turnout %.