Latest UK General Election 2020 Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 46

Party	2015 Votes	2015 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.8%	331	40.4%	348
LAB	31.2%	232	29.8%	217
LIB	8.1%	8	6.6%	5
UKIP	12.9%	1	13.9%	1
Green	3.8%	1	3.7%	1
SNP	4.9%	56	4.9%	56
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	4
Minor	0.8%	0	0.3%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Jan 2016 to 25 Jan 2016, sampling 7,136 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	77%
Con/Nat coalition	14%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	4%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	3%
Lab/Nat coalition	2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 31 January 2016 at 
With only a light amount of polling in January, there was no clear trend. 

The Conservatives maintain a lead over Labour of around 10% (including correction for pollster bias), and the other parties are fairly stable too. 

Further analysis of the pollsters' error in May 2015 has been provided both by the BPC/MRS inquiry preliminary report, and by the British Election Study. These both point towards methodological problems which led to Labour voters being over-represented in the online and telephone polls. 
The most recent polls from the five pollsters who published polls in January are: 

Panelbase (Times) has Con 39, Lab 31, Lib 6, UKIP 14, Green 5 ComRes (IoS; SMirror) has Con 40, Lab 29, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 3 Survation (Mail on Sunday) has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 7, UKIP 16, Green 3 ICM (The Guardian) has Con 40, Lab 35, Lib 6, UKIP 10, Green 3 Ipsos-MORI has Con 40, Lab 31, Lib 7, UKIP 11, Green 4 
The averages: Con 40 (nc), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 7 (+1), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 4 (nc). 
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 46 seats, winning 348 seats (+2 seats since 3 January). 

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Electoral Calculus 

USING THEIR 600 SEAT MODEL

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 82

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	300	40.4%	41	0	+41	341
LAB	29.7%	222	29.8%	11	46	-35	187
LIB	23.6%	54	6.6%	0	50	-50	4
UKIP	0.0%	0	13.9%	0	0	+0	0
Green	0.0%	0	3.7%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	1.7%	6	4.2%	43	0	+43	49
PlaidC	0.6%	2	0.6%	1	0	+1	3
Minor	7.5%	0	0.8%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		16		0	0	+0	16