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Just how much swing does the rest of the UK need in the #EUREF

Now over the coming months and possibly years there is going to be poll after poll for the #EUref Now by shear weight of numbers. What the Leave / Remain vote is for England more or less dictates the decision for the other 3 countries in the Union. It is thought Northern Ireland is more or less likely to vote to Remain. But with an electorate of 1,236,683 they would find it difficult to influence things. Wales with 2,282,297 has in many polls swung between leave and remain and could end up 50/50 The second largest of the nations and with the greatest turn outs when it comes to referendums is Scotland with an electorate of 4,094,784.

 So what would be needed for Scotland and the other nations to counter act any pro leave feeling of England just how pro to remaining would they need to be to counteract an English nation which wanted to leave the EU

 Total electorate England 38,806,649
Total Electorate Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland 7,613,764

 Now below I have tried to go through a series of scenarios that shows depending on what the result is in England against various turnouts, versus the % remain / leave the other countries would need to get to overturn the English portion of the over all vote.

 I have done the results in three pairs

 Scenario 1 RED England 50% Turnout The rest of the UK 60%
Scenario 2 BLUE England 60% Turnout The rest of the UK 70%
Scenario 3 BLACK All of the UK 60% Turnout

 Along the top line it shows what could be potentially the Leave / Remain in England once you have the first three calculations you can simply continue it on in its pattern.

England Leave / Remain % >
Theoretical Turnouts
V		50.5% Leave
49.5% Remain		51% Leave
49% Remain		51.5% Leave
48.5% Remain
England 50% TurnoutLeave 9,798,678
Remain 9,604,645
Leave lead 194,033		Leave 9,895,695
Remain 9,507,328
Leave Lead 388,066		Leave 9,992,711
Remain 9,410,612
Leave Lead 582,099
Rest of UK 60% TurnoutRemain 52.13%
Leave 47.87%		Remain 54.25%
Leave 45.75%		Remain 56.37%
Leave 43.63%
England 60% TurnoutLeave 11,758,414
Remain 11,525,574
Leave Lead 232,840		Leave 11,874,834
Remain 11,409,154
Leave Lead 465,680		Leave 11,991,254
Remain 11,292,734
Leave Lead 698,520
Rest of UK 70% TurnoutRemain 52.185%
Leave 47.815%		Remain 54.37%
Leave 45.63%		Remain 56.55%
Leave 43.45%
England 60% Turnout
Leave 11,758,414
Remain 11,525,574
Leave Lead 232,840		Leave 11,874,834
Remain 11,409,154
Leave Lead 465,680		Leave 11,991,254
Remain 11,292,734
Leave Lead 698,520
Rest of UK 60% TurnoutRemain 55.097%
Leave 44.913%		Remain 60.194%
Leave 39.806%		Remain 65.291%
Leave 34.709%

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Below we have also calculated probable figures using 2015 UK General Election figures and 2014 UK European Parliament election figures

click the links below for the information.

euref potential Leave/Remain voters using the UKGE2015 voting figures

European election results could be converted into Leave/Remain votes