https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard
first published 20th July
Later today MPs will debate the Government’s welfare plans. Labour is divided over how to react, and the Chancellor has rubbed salt in Labour’s wounds by praising Harriet Harman’s decision not to oppose his bill. Labour voters, says Osborne, back his measures.
He is partly right. Immediately after the Budget YouGov tested a number of Osborne’s policies. The table below shows the results. Not surprisingly, Labour voters, like most others, back the increase in the tax allowance and the uprating of the minimum wage. But there is also widespread support among Labour voters for limiting child tax credits in future to two children per family, and lowering the cap on total benefits to £23,000 a year in London and £20,000 a year outside London.
| Are these Budget measures a good idea or the wrong priority? |
All %
|
Labour voters %
| ||||
Good idea
|
Wrong priority
|
Don't know
|
Good idea
|
Wrong priority
|
Don't know
| |
Increasing the personal tax allowance (the amount people can earn before paying income tax) to £11,000 a year
|
84
|
7
|
8
|
77
|
12
|
11
|
Introducing a new compulsory living wage of £7.20 an hour for over 25s, rising to £9 an hour by 2020 (compared with the current minimum wage of £6.70)
|
80
|
9
|
11
|
77
|
11
|
12
|
In future, only paying child tax credits for a maximum of two children in each family
|
67
|
20
|
13
|
50
|
32
|
17
|
Reducing the maximum amount of benefits a household can receive each year from £26000 to £23000 in London, and £20000 outside London
|
67
|
20
|
13
|
47
|
34
|
19
|
Increasing the effective amount a married couple can leave without paying inheritance tax to £1 million
|
54
|
32
|
14
|
32
|
52
|
17
|
Committing to meet the NATO target of spending 2% of national income on defence
|
52
|
25
|
23
|
38
|
34
|
28
|
Stopping people under the age of 21 from claiming housing benefit
|
50
|
33
|
17
|
32
|
51
|
17
|
Transferring the cost of free television licences for over 75s from the government to the BBC
|
49
|
34
|
17
|
34
|
48
|
18
|
Keeping benefits for working age people at their current levels for the next four years instead of increasing them in line with inflation
|
46
|
36
|
18
|
25
|
55
|
19
|
Cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% by 2020
|
40
|
33
|
27
|
24
|
47
|
28
|
Limiting pay rises for public sector workers to 1% for the next four years
|
30
|
51
|
19
|
13
|
70
|
17
|
Abolishing the maintenance grant for students with low incomes, and replacing it with larger loans
|
24
|
52
|
24
|
13
|
69
|
18
|
However, most Labour voters dislike the plans to stop people under 21 from claiming housing benefit and – the big one, in terms of the amount of money it would save – keeping benefits for working people at the present level rather than letting them rise with inflation. By even bigger margins, Labour voters reject the 1% limit on public sector pay rises, and scrapping maintenance grants for poorer students.
These findings fit a pattern that has been visible for some years. Most voters, and especially Labour voters, draw a distinction between support for workers and students, on the basis that they are helping the economy to grow and improving their own prospects, and support for working-age people who are not in work and/or subsidies for people who choose to have large families.
Whether this subjective distinction between ‘deserving’ and ‘undeserving’ welfare recipients is morally right, socially just or economically wise is an important, but separate issue. If politicians choose to invoke public opinion in support of their position, they should take care to understand it properly.