Constituency | Winning Party 2015 | Maj/lead over UKIP | Swing Required % | Maj/lead over UKIP % | Total Votes 2015 | UKIP position if not 2nd | Additional swing required to overcome intervening parties? |
Thurrock | Con: 1 | 974 | 0.98 | 1.97 | 49,564 | 3rd | |
Thanet South | Con: 2 | 2,812 | 2.85 | 5.69 | 49,401 | ||
Hartlepool | Lab: 1 | 3,024 | 3.83 | 7.66 | 39,490 | ||
Boston & Skegness | Con: 3 | 4,336 | 5.00 | 10.00 | 43,339 | ||
Heywood & Middleton | Lab: 2 | 5,299 | 5.46 | 10.92 | 48,538 | ||
Dagenham & Rainham | Lab: 3 | 4,980 | 5.78 | 11.57 | 43,050 | ||
Rochester & Strood | Con: 4 | 7,133 | 6.79 | 13.58 | 52,516 | ||
Mansfield | Lab: 4 | 6,753 | 7.15 | 14.31 | 47,193 | 3rd | |
Great Grimsby | Lab: 5 | 4,997 | 7.41 | 14.81 | 33,731 | 3rd | |
Stoke-on-Trent North | Lab: 6 | 5,887 | 7.61 | 15.23 | 38,654 | 3rd | |
Rother Valley | Lab: 7 | 7,297 | 7.76 | 15.52 | 47,019 | ||
Stoke-on-Trent Central | Lab: 8 | 5,179 | 8.33 | 16.66 | 31,084 | ||
Basildon South & Thurrock East | Con: 5 | 7,691 | 8.43 | 16.87 | 45,593 | ||
Dudley North | Lab: 9 | 6,772 | 8.91 | 17.82 | 37,992 | 3rd | |
Penistone & Stocksbridge | Lab: 10 | 8,953 | 9.55 | 19.11 | 46,854 | ||
Bradford South | Lab: 11 | 7,271 | 9.67 | 19.34 | 37,600 | 3rd | |
Isle of Wight | Con: 6 | 13,703 | 9.75 | 19.49 | 70,300 | ||
Ashfield | Lab: 12 | 9,298 | 9.81 | 19.61 | 47,409 | 3rd | |
Castle Point | Con: 7 | 8,934 | 9.83 | 19.66 | 45,450 | ||
Great Yarmouth | Con: 8 | 8,819 | 9.92 | 19.83 | 44,469 | 3rd | |
Hyndburn | Lab: 13 | 9,044 | 10.54 | 21.09 | 42,887 | 3rd | YES |
Portsmouth South | Con: 9 | 8,990 | 10.73 | 21.45 | 41,903 | 4th | |
Bristol South | Lab: 14 | 11,124 | 10.94 | 21.88 | 50,842 | 3rd | |
West Bromwich West | Lab: 15 | 7,742 | 11.05 | 22.10 | 35,026 | ||
Southport | LD: 1 | 9,802 | 11.11 | 22.23 | 44,101 | 4th | YES |
Newport East | Lab: 16 | 7,824 | 11.14 | 22.29 | 35,108 | 3rd | |
Rotherham | Lab: 17 | 8,446 | 11.17 | 22.33 | 37,823 | ||
Don Valley | Lab: 18 | 9,658 | 11.37 | 22.73 | 42,486 | 3rd | |
Workington | Lab: 19 | 8,744 | 11.37 | 22.73 | 38,463 | 3rd | |
Stoke-on-Trent South | Lab: 20 | 8,964 | 11.46 | 22.92 | 39,107 | 3rd | YES |
Dover | Con: 10 | 11,560 | 11.51 | 23.02 | 50,224 | 3rd | |
Thanet North | Con: 11 | 10,948 | 11.63 | 23.27 | 47,053 | ||
St Austell & Newquay | Con: 12 | 11,747 | 11.66 | 23.33 | 50,361 | 3rd | |
Walsall North | Lab: 21 | 8,666 | 11.75 | 23.50 | 36,883 | 3rd | YES |
Hornchurch & Upminster | Con: 13 | 13,074 | 11.83 | 23.67 | 55,236 | ||
Blyth Valley | Lab: 22 | 9,229 | 12.00 | 24.00 | 38,461 | ||
Burnley | Lab: 23 | 9,686 | 12.18 | 24.37 | 39,746 | 3rd | YES |
Sittingbourne & Sheppey | Con: 14 | 12,168 | 12.32 | 24.64 | 49,378 | ||
Doncaster Central | Lab: 24 | 10,093 | 12.49 | 24.97 | 40,420 | ||
Caerphilly | Lab: 25 | 10,073 | 12.50 | 25.01 | 40,283 | ||
Folkestone & Hythe | Con: 15 | 13,797 | 12.54 | 25.08 | 55,010 | ||
Llanelli | Lab: 26 | 9,679 | 12.55 | 25.09 | 38,574 | 3rd | |
Bosworth | Con: 16 | 13,601 | 12.69 | 25.38 | 53,582 | 4th | |
Camborne & Redruth | Con: 17 | 11,676 | 12.73 | 25.46 | 45,868 | 3rd | |
Redcar | Lab: 27 | 10,430 | 12.74 | 25.49 | 40,919 | 3rd | |
Birmingham Yardley | Lab: 28 | 10,492 | 12.75 | 25.50 | 41,151 | 3rd | |
Torfaen | Lab: 29 | 9,735 | 12.83 | 25.66 | 37,937 | 3rd | |
Rochford & Southend East | Con: 18 | 11,293 | 12.95 | 25.90 | 43,608 | 3rd | |
Worsley & Eccles South | Lab: 30 | 10,912 | 12.98 | 25.95 | 42,048 | 3rd | |
Stalybridge & Hyde | Lab: 31 | 10,727 | 13.07 | 26.14 | 41,034 | 3rd | |
Scarborough & Whitby | Con: 19 | 12,502 | 13.09 | 26.19 | 47,739 | 3rd | YES |
Bexleyheath & Crayford | Con: 20 | 11,461 | 13.12 | 26.24 | 43,685 | 3rd | |
Eastleigh | Con: 21 | 14,681 | 13.22 | 26.45 | 55,505 | 3rd | |
Batley & Spen | Lab: 32 | 13,378 | 13.25 | 26.50 | 50,479 | 3rd | YES |
Bridgwater & Somerset West | Con: 22 | 14,583 | 13.39 | 26.78 | 54,447 | ||
Bolton South East | Lab: 33 | 10,928 | 13.41 | 26.82 | 40,743 | ||
Wolverhampton North East | Lab: 34 | 9,145 | 13.45 | 26.89 | 34,003 | 3rd | |
Northampton South | Con: 23 | 10,512 | 13.52 | 27.03 | 38,884 | 3rd | YES |
Dudley South | Con: 24 | 10,434 | 13.65 | 27.31 | 38,210 | 3rd | YES |
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr | PC: 1 | 10,777 | 13.68 | 27.35 | 39,399 | 4th | |
Rochdale | Lab: 35 | 12,442 | 13.69 | 27.39 | 45,430 | ||
Neath | Lab: 36 | 10,176 | 13.70 | 27.40 | 37,135 | 3rd | |
Plymouth Moor View | Con: 25 | 11,684 | 13.71 | 27.42 | 42,606 | 3rd | YES |
Pontypridd | Lab: 37 | 10,469 | 13.82 | 27.64 | 37,882 | 3rd | |
Norfolk South West | Con: 26 | 13,861 | 13.83 | 27.66 | 50,110 | ||
Portsmouth North | Con: 27 | 12,683 | 13.97 | 27.94 | 45,390 | 3rd | |
Ashton-under-Lyne | Lab: 38 | 10,898 | 14.00 | 28.00 | 38,918 | 3rd | |
Bolton North East | Lab: 39 | 12,094 | 14.01 | 28.02 | 43,161 | 3rd | YES |
Norfolk North | LD: 2 | 13,856 | 14.02 | 28.04 | 49,414 | 3rd | YES |
Cleethorpes | Con: 28 | 12,670 | 14.05 | 28.10 | 45,089 | 3rd | |
Romford | Con: 29 | 13,859 | 14.09 | 28.18 | 49,178 | ||
Birmingham Erdington | Lab: 40 | 9,784 | 14.10 | 28.21 | 34,684 | 3rd | |
Gravesham | Con: 30 | 14,178 | 14.14 | 28.28 | 50,139 | 3rd | |
Gillingham & Rainham | Con: 31 | 13,391 | 14.22 | 28.44 | 47,078 | 3rd | |
Alyn & Deeside | Lab: 41 | 11,874 | 14.37 | 28.74 | 41,314 | 3rd | YES |
Spelthorne | Con: 32 | 14,152 | 14.42 | 28.84 | 49,079 | ||
West Bromwich East | Lab: 42 | 10,868 | 14.49 | 28.99 | 37,492 | 3rd | |
Cardiff South & Penarth | Lab: 43 | 13,543 | 14.51 | 29.02 | 46,667 | 3rd | |
Dartford | Con: 33 | 15,236 | 14.53 | 29.07 | 52,418 | 3rd | |
Forest of Dean | Con: 34 | 14,399 | 14.54 | 29.08 | 49,520 | 3rd | |
Swansea West | Lab: 44 | 10,223 | 14.54 | 29.08 | 35,156 | 3rd | |
Hazel Grove | Con: 35 | 12,599 | 14.58 | 29.15 | 43,219 | 4th | |
Wyre Forest | Con: 36 | 14,427 | 14.59 | 29.18 | 49,440 | 3rd | |
Stourbridge | Con: 37 | 13,454 | 14.61 | 29.23 | 46,029 | 3rd | YES |
Canterbury | Con: 38 | 15,629 | 14.62 | 29.23 | 53,465 | 3rd | |
Leicester West | Lab: 45 | 10,101 | 14.63 | 29.26 | 34,522 | 3rd | |
South Shields | Lab: 46 | 10,614 | 14.63 | 29.27 | 36,265 | ||
Hull West & Hessle | Lab: 47 | 9,333 | 14.67 | 29.35 | 31,803 | ||
Hull East | Lab: 48 | 10,319 | 14.68 | 29.36 | 35,144 | ||
Bishop Auckland | Lab: 49 | 11,568 | 14.68 | 29.37 | 39,389 | 3rd | YES |
Makerfield | Lab: 50 | 13,155 | 14.69 | 29.37 | 44,788 | ||
Devon North | Con: 39 | 15,372 | 14.69 | 29.38 | 52,320 | 3rd | YES |
Islwyn | Lab: 51 | 10,404 | 14.69 | 29.39 | 35,401 | ||
Cardiff West | Lab: 52 | 12,880 | 14.71 | 29.41 | 43,792 | 4th | |
Clwyd South | Lab: 53 | 10,338 | 14.74 | 29.48 | 35,064 | 3rd | YES |
Newcastle upon Tyne North | Lab: 54 | 13,242 | 14.75 | 29.50 | 44,891 | 3rd | |
Sheffield South East | Lab: 55 | 12,311 | 14.77 | 29.53 | 41,685 | ||
Leeds West | Lab: 56 | 11,352 | 14.77 | 29.54 | 38,423 | 3rd | |
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton | Con: 40 | 13,944 | 14.80 | 29.60 | 47,116 | ||
Maidstone & The Weald | Con: 41 | 14,815 | 14.81 | 29.62 | 50,010 | 3rd | |
Bournemouth West | Con: 42 | 12,410 | 14.85 | 29.71 | 41,773 | ||
Louth & Horncastle | Con: 43 | 14,977 | 14.88 | 29.75 | 50,336 | ||
Doncaster North | Lab: 57 | 11,780 | 14.91 | 29.82 | 39,501 | ||
Norwich South | Lab: 58 | 14,494 | 14.95 | 29.91 | 48,463 | 5th | |
Durham North West | Lab: 59 | 12,809 | 14.96 | 29.91 | 42,818 | 3rd | |
Stockton North | Lab: 60 | 11,855 | 14.98 | 29.96 | 39,571 | 3rd | |
Note: maj / lead figure is an extrapolation when additional swing is required. In these cases the swing required percentage is converted into a majority / lead figure. |
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UKIP Target seats for the 2020 UK General Election
Collated by @AndyJSajs